A NOBLE public opinion poll released June 5 reveals that Arizona voters are divided equally in their opinion concerning whether the state is heading in the right or the wrong direction. This has serious implications for those who will be voting on candidates to nominate for the 2026 general election.
This should not be surprising to anyone who has being paying attention to statewide elections over the last few decades. Winners of the top two statewide offices, those of governor and U. S. senator, have split almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats. Other statewide offices have experienced similar results.
Since Arizona voters are so equally divided on the direction the state is moving, we must look at other poll results to determine the likely outcome of the 2026 election and/or what to do to change that outcome if it is not the one desired.
One poll result to look at is the Preferred Party to Lead Arizona. In this latest poll, Republicans show a 4-point advantage over Democrats. A Republican advantage in this area has existed for quite some time. Based on this alone, Republicans should be winning every statewide election. Since that has not been the case, we must look elsewhere for reasons why.
The answer is clear when we look at the AZ Politician Favorabilities poll, which addresses the question of whether the perception of the politician is a net positive or a net negative.
Even though Arizona voters favor Republicans to lead the state, the top three AZ statewide elected officials are all Democrats and have substantially positive ratios of positive to negative favorability. That same poll shows Trump with an evenly divided favorable vs. unfavorable rating.
The success of all three Democrats may be explained by realizing that they have been good at gaining support among voters other than the Democrat Party fanatics.
The Trump rating may be explained in terms of voter expectations, which may be unrealistic.
The top three issues for voters, according to this poll, are inflation, affordable housing, and immigration.
On immigration there is no doubt that Trump is doing an excellent job.
The inflation issue is a different matter because it is impossible to reverse years of incompetence or neglect overnight. The fact is that Trump inherited an inflation rate of 3.0 in January. That rate has been reducing consistently with rates of 2.8 in February, 2.4 in March, and 2.3 in April. The May rate will be available in mid-June. By any credible standard, Trump has been doing a good job addressing inflation.
The third top issue, affordable housing, is one in which the president has less control, unless he tries to exert undue influence over the housing market. We know from experience that those controls most often hurt rather than help.
One major takeaway from this poll is that voters should follow Wiliam F. Buckley, Jr. advice given decades ago, which may be paraphrased, “In the primary election, vote for your favorite candidate who can win the general election.”
Even though this advice was given to Republicans, it is equally applicable to Democrats. In other words, to win elections, chose candidates based not only on ideology but also on electability.