Despite the best efforts of the IRC to create more heavily democratic districts across Arizona, voters are slightly shifting the balance of power back. Since January when the final redistricting maps were released, he voter registration numbers are changing “almost universally in favor of Republicans,” according to the Yellow Sheet.
“ While those changes were fairly minimal as of June, the most recent figures from the Secretary of State from the middle of August show that these shifts now amount to several percentage points of gains and losses in partisan registration advantage. The most notable example is in LD8, where Dems have slipped nearly three points.”
The IRC had intended LD8 to be minority district guaranteed to deliver Democrat votes, those residents are reregistering as Republicans. So while Democrats still have a registration advantage of 6.7 percentage points, the edge has been greatly reduced. The Democrat registration is down by 2.9 points from 9.6 percentage points.
According to the Yellow Sheet, “Republican advantage has grown in LD6 by 2.5 percentage points, in LD14 by 1.9, in LD18 by 1.1, in LD20 by 2.2, and in LD21 by 1. In CD2 and CD9, Republican registration advantage has grown from 0.5 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively, to 1.6 and 3.5 percentage points.”
Jose Borrajero of the Arizona Latino Republican Association said of the shift, “There is no easy way to determine why this is happening, but there are three possible and quite plausible reasons. It could be that voters are fed up with the IRC and are pushing back. It could be that Republican registration efforts are finally paying off. But the most likely reason is that many Arizonans find Obama’s failed policies of socialism at home and appeasement abroad quite repugnant.”