Future Failed Nation-States

Map Source: www.loc.gov
Map Source: Library of Congress
Obama supported the so-called Arab Spring. As a result, in Egypt, President Mobarak was overthrown, a Muslim Brotherhood candidate supported by Obama was elected president, and the military deposed him in favor of a secular government versus sharia law.

Libya’s Muammar Gadaffi was murdered during Arab Spring. When Ambassador Stevens and four others were killed in an organized attack, Obama blamed it on a Youtube film. Now the truth is seeping out with the Obama and Clinton alibis being shredded by witnesses who were (1) present at Benghazi when our ambassador was murdered and (2) present in the basement of the State Department when critical documents were removed before an Accountability Review Board review.

The events in Egypt and Libya were replicated in Tunisia, Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria; to a lesser extent in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Sudan; and to an even lesser extent in Mauritania, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Western Sahara and Palestine. The Middle East is now the most unstable region in the world.

Iraq and Syria have lost half the territory to the Islamic State and Syria (ISIS) [aka Islamic State of Syria and Levant or ISIL]. Contrary to Obama’s self-serving assertion, ISIS is Islamic. Iraq and Syria, artificially created nation-states after World War I, are devolving into their historic tribal and religious sect components. The danger represented by ISIS potentially affects Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, among others.

President Obama told the American people the United States will lead a coalition of nations against ISIS but that no American boots on the ground will be allowed. In July 2014, Obama added 825 so-called “advisors” on the ground to the existing contingent of about 150 “advisors.” All were Special Operations and intelligence people. All “advisors” were in a combat zone. They are “boots on the ground.”

In August 2014, another 130 “advisors” were sent to Iraq. In September 2014, Obama sent another 475 “advisors.” There are over 1,575 “advisors” or “boots on the ground” in Iraq. Former director of the Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency, Michael Hayden, said, “I wouldn’t be surprised if by Christmas we are not pushing 5,000 GI’s in and around the region supporting all this.”

Shades of Vietnam . . . Obama is already being sucked into a major ground war in Iraq . . . again . . . caused by his premature withdrawal of American forces after the war was won . . . before Obama lost it. The lies of Lyndon Johnson are now the same lies of Barack Obama.

What do all these Middle East countries have in common? They share a primitive, brutal, misogynist religion; they are divided by tribal and religious sect dynamics; they are ruled by autocratic or theocratic oligarchies; they are rich in oil but poor in foodstuffs (most have to import in excess of 50% of their food); they share very high population growth rates; and they share the same Achilles heel: without outside subsidy, they cannot feed their people.

Obama’s choices are limited. Either he commits and places large numbers of American soldiers on the ground to eliminate ISIS or he abandons the Middle East to ISIS. If Obama opts out of either option, his so-called strategy will die from a thousand cuts from ISIS: Obama essentially defaults to abandoning the Middle East.

At that time, the Middle East becomes ground zero for nation-state failure. Obviously, Iraq and Syria will be among the first to fail. If Syria fails, Lebanon also fails. The danger to Israel, which borders Lebanon, is palpable. Failed nation-states that cannot feed their people under the thumb of ISIS . . . the impending bloodbath is unthinkable.