Poll: Jeff Flake Vulnerable in Potential GOP Primary

Flake 2014 selfie

Kansas City, MO – Remington Research Group has completed a public survey of likely 2018 Republican primary voters in Arizona. The survey was conducted November 15 through November 16, 2016. 1,122 likely 2018 Republican primary voters participated in the survey and the margin of error is +/-2.93%. The survey was paid for and commissioned independent of any campaign or committee.

The data show that Donald Trump is popular amongst Arizona’s Republican primary electorate. 82% hold a favorable view of the President-elect while only 10% view him unfavorably. In contrast, incumbent U.S. Senator Jeff Flake is viewed unfavorably by roughly half of Republicans. 30% view Flake favorably while 49% view the Senator in a negative light.

Remington tested a series of potential challenges to Flake in 2018. These challengers include State Treasurer Jeff DeWit and 2016 U.S. Senate candidate Kelli Ward.

Ballot results for each matchup are below:

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake and Kelli Ward, for whom would you vote?

Jeff Flake 35%
Kelli Ward 35%
Undecided 30%

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake and Jeff DeWit, for whom would you vote?

Jeff Flake 33%
Jeff DeWit 42%
Undecided 25%

Q: If the candidates in the 2018 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate were Jeff Flake, Kelli Ward and Jeff DeWit, for whom would you vote?

Jeff Flake 30%
Jeff DeWit 38%
Kelli Ward 15%
Undecided 17%

Flake’s high water mark in a contested primary is 35% against Kelli Ward and he is currently down nine points against Jeff DeWit. In a potential three way matchup against DeWit and Ward, Flake trails by eight points.

“Jeff Flake is currently in a very precarious position,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group. “The data show that Flake’s image amongst Republican primary voters is in bad shape and that carries over to the ballot where he only realizes 35% support on the high end. It remains early but he is certainly the most vulnerable incumbent to a primary challenge.”

Below are a few of the tables from the full report available here.

What is your opinion of :

Current U S Senator Jeff Flake

Column % CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 CD 8 CD 9
Favorable 29% 26% 25% 18% 33% 36% 40% 26% 39%
Unfavorable 46% 59% 47% 51% 44% 47% 37% 57% 46%
No opinion 25% 15% 28% 31% 24% 17% 24% 17% 15%

Former Arizona Senator Kelly Ward

Column % CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 CD 8 CD 9
Favorable 12% 18% 9% 17% 19% 25% 22% 22% 17%
Unfavorable 9% 15% 7% 8% 8% 15% 9% 10% 13%
No opinion 79% 67% 84% 76% 73% 60% 69% 68% 70%

Currrent Arizona State Treasurer Jeff DeWitt

Column % CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 CD 8 CD 9
Favorable 37% 31% 26% 47% 34% 31% 36% 29% 36%
Unfavorable 15% 24% 16% 19% 19% 25% 23% 19% 23%
No opinion 48% 45% 57% 34% 46% 45% 41% 52% 41%

About ADI Staff Reporter 17572 Articles
Under the leadership of Editor-in -Chief Huey Freeman, our team of staff reporters bring accurate,timely, and complete news coverage.