Montenegro, Lesko Ahead In CD8 Special Election Poll

A new poll of the heavily GOP Congressional District 8 shows it is a two-candidate race between Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro. The two leaders are tied with 21 percent apiece in the latest OH Predictive Insights poll.

Here is how the top candidates stack up and the changes since the last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017.

Phil Lovas is now in third place with 12 percent. And Bob Stump, the former front runner, has dropped to fourth as he has taken hits from his opponents and the media about whether he is taking advantage of his name change to that of a former congressman in the West Valley.

“Former state senators Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro are the clear front runners in the GOP primary,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based leading behavioral research polling company. “Lesko has the highest favorables at 54 percent amidst her campaign’s decision to begin TV ads on Fox News. Montenegro has gained 20 points from early December after garnering endorsements from Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Senator Ted Cruz.”

“There is a large field of candidates however it is now a two-person race between Lesko and Montenegro – may the best man or woman win,” said Noble.

Bob Stump’s unfavorable numbers jumped 17 points since the last poll conducted on December 11th, 2017 due to the recent controversy over his name.

This automated survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on February 1st, 2018, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

The previous poll was an automated survey which was completed by OH Predictive Insights on December 11th, 2017, from a likely 2018 GOP Special Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation and gender however age leaned heavily towards 55+ respondent’s due to it being automated. The sample size was 400 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.89%.

3 Comments

  1. So disappointed if Lesko wins. She listens only to paid lobbyists and the corporations against the people, i.e., a $3500 tax on Sun City seniors that keeps seniors from getting a reverse morthage from HUD. I voted for Lovas who vowed to DRAIN THE SWAMP. LESKO IS THE SWAMP.

  2. Full Disclosure: I reside in LD22 of CD8; also, I support Phil Lovas.

    Interesting poll; thanks for publishing it! Observations:
    1. With a stated margin of error of +/- 4.89% Lovas, Montenegro, and Lesko are theoretically even (I.E. If add 4.89% to Phil and subtract 4.89% from both Debbie and Steve; by the same token either Montenegro or Lesko could be an outright leader over the other).

    2. It is unfortunate that Clair Van Steenwyk was not included in the December 11th poll as he was a past candidate for the office and may have had a higher name recognition and support than either Montenegro or Lovas at that time given his percentage in the latest poll!

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