McSally Gains, Sinema Falls Behind In Arizona Senate Race

A new poll shows that Martha McSally, Arizona’s Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has increased her lead over Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema. The OH Predictive Insights poll was conducted on the first two days of October from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample.

Although the amount of undecided voters has grown to 8%, McSally is currently leading with 47% of the vote and Sinema has dropped down to 41%. The introduction of Green Party candidate Angela Green takes from Sinema’s share, with 4% of the vote.

“Our September 5th poll showed McSally taking the lead over Sinema and continues to lead into October,” says Chief Pollster Mike Noble. “The combination of Angela Green entering the race and Trump’s approval increase is having a negative effect on Sinema, making her numbers go down.”

The biggest trend continues to be among key swing groups, including voters with a Bachelor’s degree and women. Although our last OHPI poll showed that McSally’s lead was directly linked to Trump approval, it appears that is changing among the same groups as Trump’s numbers continue to rise. While Trump approval has improved with these swing groups, McSally’s lead has not followed at the same pace.

Among those with a Bachelor’s degree, Trump approval rose by 7 points while McSally’s lead over Sinema did not increase, unlike the difference between the July and September polls.

OHPI says the same pattern appears among women. In the last poll both Trump and McSally’s numbers spiked with female voters, but now Trump is up and McSally is down. Trump’s net approval grew to 10%, while McSally fell to -1%.

Among Independent voters, Sinema is leading over McSally, with 48% of the vote. McSally currently sits with 36% of the vote and Greene with 8%. Sinema’s lead with this group has been consistent since July.

“As the numbers continue to churn under the toplines, the candidates will have to pay attention to their campaign decisions,” says Noah Rudnick, data analyst at OH Predictive Insights. “This will directly affect the swing voters, who will decide the margin in this race.”

10 Comments on "McSally Gains, Sinema Falls Behind In Arizona Senate Race"

  1. I am so sick of the ads. Do the politicians even realize that people are fed up with the lies and BS.

    • I am ashamed of the local affiliated stations that have no morals in accepting trash as advertisement. And then running it 24/7. Take the money but it will come back to hurt you.

  2. WHO WOULD VOTE FOR SINEMA SHE IS A LESBIAN CLOWN.

  3. As I posted yesterday we are again forced to chose between the lesser of 2 evils. mcsilly or cinema. Mcsilly does have a track record in this area, cinema never heard of her till she decided to run for senate. have no idea of where she comes from or what she has done except for the funny ads where there is 1 lying politician trying to call out another. She is a typical democrap, all about me and shame on you. Same thing with kirkpatrick. Has run in 4 different elections in different areas, again never heard of her, but have heard that she is a waste of time from people who have lived in areas she was ‘representing’. the democraps just dont run and really qualified people it seems, neither do the r’s, but the r’s candidates do seem to often time be the better choice. Just look at greedyhalfa, never hear from him till election time or when he want to make the national news with ‘boycott az’ and other stupid ideas.

    Oh well, here we go again.

  4. Chris Horquilla | October 11, 2018 at 9:35 am |

    After witnessing attempt to destroy the personal reputation of Brett Kavanaugh, I will never vote for a Democrat again. I support McSally. She will help Make America Great Again.

    • Amen Chris. The party no longer exists in my mind except as mobsters and liars.

    • And this poll was taken before the kook circus. I expect the lead to widen.
      The pic of si-enema in a pink tutu next to McSally as a combat pilot needs to be shown EVERYWHERE.
      Si_Enema would have been one of those kooks protesting and acting like animals in the Senate Jusdiciary Committee. Elected ones and paid ones.
      We don’t need any more kooks in the Senate!

  5. Thank you Angela Green and President Trump! BTW, is the Green Party named after Angela? Mike Noble is probably Arizona`s best pollster so it is good to see his results in the ADI. In the age of the internet, even a politician as slick and undaunted by the truth as Sinema cannot hide her train wreck of a political and legislative record.

  6. McSally has had command experience in the military, not just as a fighter pilot. She also took on the government while stationed in the middle east over their requirement she wear a bhurka. She won that fight. Don’t see anything about Sinema’s experience on the positive side.

    • I didn’t know about the bhurka! Makes me respect McSally more.

      Bhurkas and hijabs are visual proof that Islam considers men to be superior and women as chattel.
      I can’t respect American women who agree to wear one.

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