A new poll shows that Martha McSally, Arizona’s Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has increased her lead over Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema. The OH Predictive Insights poll was conducted on the first two days of October from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample.
Although the amount of undecided voters has grown to 8%, McSally is currently leading with 47% of the vote and Sinema has dropped down to 41%. The introduction of Green Party candidate Angela Green takes from Sinema’s share, with 4% of the vote.
“Our September 5th poll showed McSally taking the lead over Sinema and continues to lead into October,” says Chief Pollster Mike Noble. “The combination of Angela Green entering the race and Trump’s approval increase is having a negative effect on Sinema, making her numbers go down.”
The biggest trend continues to be among key swing groups, including voters with a Bachelor’s degree and women. Although our last OHPI poll showed that McSally’s lead was directly linked to Trump approval, it appears that is changing among the same groups as Trump’s numbers continue to rise. While Trump approval has improved with these swing groups, McSally’s lead has not followed at the same pace.
Among those with a Bachelor’s degree, Trump approval rose by 7 points while McSally’s lead over Sinema did not increase, unlike the difference between the July and September polls.
OHPI says the same pattern appears among women. In the last poll both Trump and McSally’s numbers spiked with female voters, but now Trump is up and McSally is down. Trump’s net approval grew to 10%, while McSally fell to -1%.
Among Independent voters, Sinema is leading over McSally, with 48% of the vote. McSally currently sits with 36% of the vote and Greene with 8%. Sinema’s lead with this group has been consistent since July.
“As the numbers continue to churn under the toplines, the candidates will have to pay attention to their campaign decisions,” says Noah Rudnick, data analyst at OH Predictive Insights. “This will directly affect the swing voters, who will decide the margin in this race.”