A poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights in mid-August shows that Keri Lake has narrowed Ruben Gallego’s lead from 10 to 7 points. This latest poll shows Gallego at 47% of the vote versus Lake at 40%.
The public is generally skeptical of political polls, and for good reason. Polls often fail to reflect the outcomes of the event that were the objects of the polls. However, Noble’s polling regarding the campaign for Arizona’s next U. S. senator has been very accurate so far.
While it is clear that the all-important momentum is in favor of Lake, the rest of the data indicates that she has some challenges ahead of her. The polling data shows that both candidates have a lot of work before they can end up victorious, but that same data shows three areas in which Gallego is in a better position to conquer those challenges.
First, we have the question of party loyalty. Because of an advantage in party registration, if every registered republican and every republican-leaning independent votes for Lake, and the direct opposite happens with Gallego, Lake is the clear winner. But the poll data does not support that scenario. It shows that Lake has 81% republican support and 29% of independent support. In this area, Gallego is clearly ahead with 90% of democrat support and 46% of support from independents.
Next, we have the favorability vs. unfavourability issue, in which Lake trails. Gallego’s favorable to unfavorable ratio is 48% to 34%, while Lake’s is 37% to 50%. While doable, reversing this may be Lake’s most difficult task.
The third area of concern for Lake is the trust in candidates on the important issues. For example, no one should be surprised that Gallego is ahead on climate change and abortion. These are core issues for ultra-liberal democrats. But Lake should be way ahead on conservative core issues like gun policy and inflation. Instead, she is slightly behind Gallego regarding those issues.
The main take away from this poll is that Lake’s current momentum places her in a good position to continue to advance to victory, but sustaining that momentum will most likely require a lot of effort from her campaign.
who would in their clear and right mind vote for Galego at all???
All polls say the top 2 issues are Economy and Immigration. Poll makes no sense.
The Noble polling firm are TDS McCain Trump haters who put out junk to hurt Trump or Trump supporters like Lake. Push polls, zero chance any clearly Trump supporting R would be doing so different than him. Watch this magically tighten up a week or so from the election so they don’t lose all credibility when people look back and forget this garbage. Same from them every two years.
Gallego – pushing pro abortion – just shot his own middle leg off – which is fine with me… asta lugo BH.
Voting for any Democrat at this point is committing country suicide.
Lake will lead down the conservatives to another defeat. She should have stayed with her fight for governor and never switch to the Senate race. She also refuses to recognize that a smart, determined, and clear talking woman is not the favorite of the dumb majority, especially the so called independents. She has not made any effort to win them over. She is not going around visiting local communities, she merely holds rallies with sympathetic supporters. That is not enough for an R to win in a blue state.
Anyone reading this site who isn’t voting Lake has lost their mind
I’m not voting for fake Lake. She lost her mind years ago.
Kari Lake must push two issues hard 1- the economy/crime- 2- the Border/pentenyl.. Gallego has just come recently to tackle these issues, and is subject to voters disappointment.. Women and the Sheriff’s of the Counties hit hard by drugs and crimes against the person and property invasions are winning issues for Lake.. Kari should stay on top of these issues continually and by October the polls will reflect a tighten race with a plus 2 for Lake