PHOENIX – Recent polling finds that former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 30 percentage point lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in Arizona. The Arizona Public Opinion Poll, a statewide survey, found that 45 percent of likely voters prefer Biden with just 17 percent supporting Sanders.
Biden is leading Sanders among all ethnicities unlike Nevada and other states where Sanders beat Biden among Hispanics. The two candidates have roughly split white voters.
Biden is beating Sanders among whites by 25 percent, among non-white and non-Hispanic voters by 28 percent, and among Hispanics by more than 30 percent.
“Biden has a 24-point lead over his nearest opponent among those who have already cast their ballot in this election,” said Mike Noble, of OH Predictive Insights. “Bernie Sanders’ visit to the Grand Canyon State last week won’t be enough to dig him out of the Grand Canyon-sized hole he finds himself in just before the March 17 preference election.”
Other poll findings:
● When looking at Arizona’s Democratic primary is the considerable number of voters who mail-in early ballots. In fact, 2 out of 5 voters have already cast their votes. However, this means that almost 60% of the electorate has either held off mailing in their ballots or who are waiting to vote on election day and can still change their minds on which candidate they will support and will be key targets for the Biden and Sanders campaigns.
● Looking at a candidate’s vote share among respondents said they have already sent in their ballots and those who are still waiting to send theirs in or are planning to vote at the polls, Biden appears to have capitalized on his recent momentum and is performing considerably better among voters who have yet to vote. While Biden’s support remains relatively stable whether or not voters have already mailed in their ballots, the share of the non-Biden vote drops 10% between these voters.
● Of the 233 respondents who have not yet voted, a little more than one-third of respondents indicated that they were waiting to see the candidates debate in Arizona on March 15th.
● It’s important to note that the presence of Elizabeth Warren’s and Mike Bloomberg’s names were in the poll. During sample collection and after collecting responses, Warren and Bloomberg dropped out of the race. Understanding which candidate that is still in the race will attract the drop-outs’ supporters will be a key factor in anticipating Tuesday’s result.
● When asked whether they would prefer a candidate who is a moderate or one who is a liberal/progressive, Bloomberg’s supporters overwhelmingly would prefer a moderate (69 percent to 18 percent). Most voters who identified Warren as their first choice prefer a candidate who is liberal/progressive.
● One in four Warren supporters said they would prefer a moderate candidate, indicating that Biden may be able to pick up a small but not insignificant portion of her supporters.
Yes. We have invited many times. For months actually. They have not responded. We offer to this day. https://t.co/f60eY4GFT0
— Bret Baier (@BretBaier) March 10, 2020
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