Two recent polls indicate that Kari Lake is very likely to secure the Republican nomination for senator but would lose to Ruben Gallego in the general election. Both the Emerson College / The Hill poll and the Noble Predictive Insights poll are in close agreement regarding this.
The Emerson College poll provided numbers on both the presidential and the senatorial races in Arizona.
According to this poll, Trump has been leading Biden for some time, although the current lead, 3%, is within the margin of error.
On the other hand, Lake, who presumably appeals to the same voters, is trailing Gallego, which could indicate that some of the MAGA Republicans are moving away from Lake, while remaining staunch supporters of Trump.
Whether Krysten Sinema enters the senate race or not will have a substantial effect on the numbers, but not on the outcome. In a two-way race Gallego is at 46% and Lake is at 39%, for a 7-point spread, with 15% undecided. In a three-way race, Gallego and Lake drop down to 36% and 30%, respectively, for an almost identical 6-point spread. Sinema’s share at 21% appears to take votes equally from both Lake and Gallego, while the undecided share remains close at 13%.
Some insight as to why Lake is trailing Gallego may be found on Emerson College’s survey of what is important to Arizona voters.
If we assume that “Threats to democracy” includes stolen elections, we clearly see that Lake’s main issue is not in sync with what is important to voters.
The Noble Predictive insights poll tells a similar story. While the numbers vary, the result is the same, namely that Lake loses to Gallego both in a two-way and a three-way race.
This poll predicts the likely result of the Republican primary election. Lake leads Lamb, her closest competitor, 54% to 21%, which is an unsurmountable 33-point lead, especially since only 17% are undecided.
When it comes to a two-way race between Lake and Gallego, the results of this Noble poll are quite similar to those of the Emerson College poll. Gallego wins 47% to 37%, with 16% undecided.
The result of a three-way race shows a small but significant difference between the two polls. In this scenario Galego is at 34%, while Lake is at 31%. Here the Gallego lead is within the 3.1% margin of error.
One item that got our attention in the Noble poll is a quote attributed to David Byler, Chief of Research at NPI:
“In Arizona, MAGA Republicans can easily win a GOP primary. But they struggle with McCain-style Republicans in suburban Phoenix. That’s why Gallego wins so handily in a two-way race but barely leads in the three-way contest. It’s also why Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot in this poll. There’s a chunk of moderate Republicans who would pick Gallego over Lake in a two-way matchup, Sinema over both of them in a three-way race, and a bland, generic Republican over anyone – if the GOP would nominate one.”
This would have a huge impact on the outcome. Did he have a specific person in mind? He did not say, so we can only speculate as to who that bland, generic Republican might be.