Prior to the 2024 general election, voters were being asked, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” The honest answer by most voters was a resounding “NO.” Now that Trump has been elected, the question becomes, “Will Trump deliver on his promises?”
That question in various forms, was asked of Arizona citizens by Noble Predictive Insights, and these are the results:
Important Policies Are Likely To Be Implemented
We see that when it comes to immigration, national security, the economy, and inflation, the expectation that they will get better wins by double digits.
Two other areas of government that many regard as important, namely education and healthcare, are expected to get worse, but only marginally, by -1 and -3 points, respectively.
It is only when we get to climate change and abortion access that we see a significant expectation that they will get worse.
Trump has repeatedly stated that education and abortion are issues best dealt with at the state level. Harris’ rhetoric notwithstanding, it is safe to expect that Trump will have a hands-off posture regarding federal intervention in education matters and abortion access.
Immigration
Before the 2024 general election, it was hard to find anyone, outside of major Democrat officials, who believed the immigration situation was acceptable. Nearly three quarters of Arizona voters (71%) considered the situation “poor” or “horrible”. Even a majority of rank-and-file Democrats (55%) were unhappy with the status quo.
This poll reveals that all voters have faith that the border situation will get better under Trump.
Trump’s Involvement In International Conflicts
The last section of this poll deals with Trump’s likely involvement in three conflicts.
| Much MORE Inclined | Much LESS Inclined | |
| Ukraine/Russia | 15% | 24% |
| Israel/Palestine | 17% | 22% |
| Taiwan/China | 14% | 21% |
America was more peaceful during Trump’s first term, and this poll indicates that it will be more peaceful again during the next four years under Trump than it has been during the last four under Biden.