A NOBLE public opinion poll released June 5 reveals that Arizona voters are divided equally in their opinion concerning whether the state is heading in the right or the wrong direction. This has serious implications for those who will be voting on candidates to nominate for the 2026 general election.
This should not be surprising to anyone who has being paying attention to statewide elections over the last few decades. Winners of the top two statewide offices, those of governor and U. S. senator, have split almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats. Other statewide offices have experienced similar results.
Since Arizona voters are so equally divided on the direction the state is moving, we must look at other poll results to determine the likely outcome of the 2026 election and/or what to do to change that outcome if it is not the one desired.
One poll result to look at is the Preferred Party to Lead Arizona. In this latest poll, Republicans show a 4-point advantage over Democrats. A Republican advantage in this area has existed for quite some time. Based on this alone, Republicans should be winning every statewide election. Since that has not been the case, we must look elsewhere for reasons why.
The answer is clear when we look at the AZ Politician Favorabilities poll, which addresses the question of whether the perception of the politician is a net positive or a net negative.
Even though Arizona voters favor Republicans to lead the state, the top three AZ statewide elected officials are all Democrats and have substantially positive ratios of positive to negative favorability. That same poll shows Trump with an evenly divided favorable vs. unfavorable rating.
The success of all three Democrats may be explained by realizing that they have been good at gaining support among voters other than the Democrat Party fanatics.
The Trump rating may be explained in terms of voter expectations, which may be unrealistic.
The top three issues for voters, according to this poll, are inflation, affordable housing, and immigration.
On immigration there is no doubt that Trump is doing an excellent job.
The inflation issue is a different matter because it is impossible to reverse years of incompetence or neglect overnight. The fact is that Trump inherited an inflation rate of 3.0 in January. That rate has been reducing consistently with rates of 2.8 in February, 2.4 in March, and 2.3 in April. The May rate will be available in mid-June. By any credible standard, Trump has been doing a good job addressing inflation.
The third top issue, affordable housing, is one in which the president has less control, unless he tries to exert undue influence over the housing market. We know from experience that those controls most often hurt rather than help.
One major takeaway from this poll is that voters should follow Wiliam F. Buckley, Jr. advice given decades ago, which may be paraphrased, “In the primary election, vote for your favorite candidate who can win the general election.”
Even though this advice was given to Republicans, it is equally applicable to Democrats. In other words, to win elections, chose candidates based not only on ideology but also on electability.
Voting for someone without real convictions is not strategy; it’s cowardice. Leaders inspire others to follow based on the strength of their convictions (and a little authenticity doesn’t hurt, either). Cowing to the remnants of the McCain wing when the only way to draw out the low propensity votes that saw Trump to the White House is candidates they trust to follow through (and not just a polished empty suit of a rentseeker with a check-the-box last name); bonus points if the candidate is smart enough to not hire RNC vendors and consultants (a drunk monkey could do a better job with 90% less grift).
If you follow pollsters who actually got the election right (y’know the only objective metric about whether or not they’re effective at their job) you’ll know that MAGA voters are LOW PROPENSITY which means it’s a question of turning out the vote. “Electability” does not conspire confidence in voters who think the system is rigged against them and are skeptical that their vote even matters to begin with.
Noble is a terrible propaganda purveyor with a track record of being constantly wrong. They push polls out to help the Chamber of Commerce crooks. They hate MAGA and all polling is so directed.
IMO, there are two kinds of people: Those who participate in polls and those who don’t. And, IMO, more liberals participate than conservatives. This is why Hillary was ahead in the polls and Harris was marginally leading Trump in 2024.
If this is all true, it is a tragedy! This is how California started to spiral down. If this pattern continues, AZ will start a similar downward trend. Do not California my Arizona!
The ignorant dont vote for the person, they vote for the d behind the name thats why we got what we have. A socialist as the gov. another as a sen, and a complete idiot pledged to china as the other. It was bad enough when mclame was around, but his flunkies still cause mayhem in elections and they are not good ones. We need to flush the entire political party systems in AZ as they are not representative of the actual people and have limited the ability to initiate change. the turd died a month or so ago and he should not have run for the position this last cycle. It was only to leverage his daughter into a position to be his replacement. She has been a bigger waste of time than the turd himself but do you think she will have a serious challange or not be ‘elected’?
Even though Arizona voters favor Republicans to lead the state, the top three AZ statewide elected officials are all Democrats and have substantially positive ratios of positive to negative favor-ability. AMAZING What a stolen election can do ! STOP THE HACK!!!
Wow, there appears to be a lot of folks not paying attention. Of course the GOP leadership in the state house has done little to “get the word out” in regards to the Hobbit’s overspending and complete disregard for this state.
All municipalities are now populated and run by far, far left Commies and some, like Pima County/Tucson can never change. My advice, get out of Arizona. The politicos and bureaucrats are running out of other people’s money. Just wait for the collapse of the public school system when 30% of the seats now filled by illegals are gone.
Voting for “electability” is just code for “vote for establishment hacks.” Thanks, but no thanks.
If my favorite candidate is not very electable and I stick with my preference we get the likes of Hobbs. Nothing is every perfect in politics. It always comes down to the least worse.
So you choose “all of nothing” over “part of something”.
If your candidate can’t win the general election, you get all of nothing – as we did with Hobbs, Gallego and Kelly.
I’ll vote for a candidate less conservative than I prefer, if that’s the most conservative candidate who can win.
Fraud aside, we have Ds in power in AZ because in 2020 and 2022 a very small number of TDS RINO AZ Rs (a few percent at best) chose to note vote or Vote D rather than give MAGA the win. They’re now on their way out and by 2028 will be purged from AZ entirely