The results of a controversial survey, concerning GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump, show that his nomination by the Republican Party would repress voter turn out in Arizona.
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The poll was commissioned by Insight Consulting, but many have asked if it was motivated by support for Senator Marco Rubio. According to sources, the Rubio camp was not behind the poll.
In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 818 high efficacy voters, conducted on November 25, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.43% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.
Michael Noble, who conducted the poll explained that “this poll isn’t about whether Trump wins if he is the nominee; it’s about what effect a Trump nomination by the Republican party would have on other Republican candidates. We wanted to look into the ‘down ballot’ effect Trump as the Republican nominee would have on the 2016 elections.”
Paul Walker, a lobbyist for primarily power companies, commissioned the poll. He issued statement in which he said that the “2016 election, like all elections, is about turning out voters – making them motivated to go to the polls or cast early ballots. Today, Republicans are 91.4 percent “very motivated” to vote next year; Democrats are 83.8 percent “very motivated”; but a Trump nomination changes the numbers. 30.5 percent of high efficacy Republicans become less motivated to vote next year with a Trump nomination, and 20.5 percent become unlikely to support other Republican candidates. We lose if our voters stay home, and we lose badly if 20.5 percent of high efficacy Republican voters vote against other Republican candidates for other offices.”
Michael Noble explained that Trump’s effect on Independent and PND voters would make Republican campaign strategy much more complex: “A Trump nomination costs Republicans their own support – but it increases the chances of picking up Independent voters. A Trump nomination makes 50.9 percent of Independent/PND voters more likely to vote next year; while 28.45 percent become less motivated – so you have a net 20.5 percent increase in Independent motivation to vote. But again, 30.5 percent of Republican voters become less motivated. So it’s a net loss for Republicans. Furthermore, Independents are not a homogenous block, obviously. Many issues effect their votes – so Republican candidates will have less of the GOP base, and would have to chase Independent votes harder: That means campaign messaging and tone have to appeal to more Independents to make up for the loss of GOP support.”
Noble explained that Independents become slightly more likely to support Republicans if Trump is the Republican nominee: “When we asked whether they become more or less likely to support other Republican candidates for other races, 39 percent of Independent/PND voters said more likely and 29 percent said less likely. So there’s an opportunity there, but Republican campaigns will have to have a very different approach to the 2016 election with Trump carrying the Republican banner. And with 30.5 percent of Republicans becoming less motivated, and 20.5 percent voting against their own party’s candidates in other races, well… The outlook isn’t good.”
Walker claims that the “Trump effect on Independent voters is complicated, the effect on high efficacy Republicans is not; it’s hard to win when nearly a third of your base is less motivated, and it’s nearly impossible to win when 20.5 percent of your base says they are less likely to support other Republicans for other offices.”
However, others familiar with the animosity the grassroots feel for the establishment of the Republican Party makes Trump and those candidates who support him more attractive. They argue that with the establishment controlling the “down ticket” candidates like Senator John McCain, who is despised by the grassroots, there is very little that does motivate the voters to vote, or compel the precinct committeemen to rallying support at all.