Poll Shows Vote Repressed By Trump Nomination

The results of a controversial survey, concerning GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump, show that his nomination by the Republican Party would repress voter turn out in Arizona.

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The poll was commissioned by Insight Consulting, but many have asked if it was motivated by support for Senator Marco Rubio. According to sources, the Rubio camp was not behind the poll.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 818 high efficacy voters, conducted on November 25, 2015, the survey calculates a 3.43% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

Michael Noble, who conducted the poll explained that “this poll isn’t about whether Trump wins if he is the nominee; it’s about what effect a Trump nomination by the Republican party would have on other Republican candidates. We wanted to look into the ‘down ballot’ effect Trump as the Republican nominee would have on the 2016 elections.”

Paul Walker, a lobbyist for primarily power companies, commissioned the poll. He issued statement in which he said that the “2016 election, like all elections, is about turning out voters – making them motivated to go to the polls or cast early ballots. Today, Republicans are 91.4 percent “very motivated” to vote next year; Democrats are 83.8 percent “very motivated”; but a Trump nomination changes the numbers. 30.5 percent of high efficacy Republicans become less motivated to vote next year with a Trump nomination, and 20.5 percent become unlikely to support other Republican candidates. We lose if our voters stay home, and we lose badly if 20.5 percent of high efficacy Republican voters vote against other Republican candidates for other offices.”

Michael Noble explained that Trump’s effect on Independent and PND voters would make Republican campaign strategy much more complex: “A Trump nomination costs Republicans their own support – but it increases the chances of picking up Independent voters. A Trump nomination makes 50.9 percent of Independent/PND voters more likely to vote next year; while 28.45 percent become less motivated – so you have a net 20.5 percent increase in Independent motivation to vote. But again, 30.5 percent of Republican voters become less motivated. So it’s a net loss for Republicans. Furthermore, Independents are not a homogenous block, obviously. Many issues effect their votes – so Republican candidates will have less of the GOP base, and would have to chase Independent votes harder: That means campaign messaging and tone have to appeal to more Independents to make up for the loss of GOP support.”

Noble explained that Independents become slightly more likely to support Republicans if Trump is the Republican nominee: “When we asked whether they become more or less likely to support other Republican candidates for other races, 39 percent of Independent/PND voters said more likely and 29 percent said less likely. So there’s an opportunity there, but Republican campaigns will have to have a very different approach to the 2016 election with Trump carrying the Republican banner. And with 30.5 percent of Republicans becoming less motivated, and 20.5 percent voting against their own party’s candidates in other races, well… The outlook isn’t good.”

Walker claims that the “Trump effect on Independent voters is complicated, the effect on high efficacy Republicans is not; it’s hard to win when nearly a third of your base is less motivated, and it’s nearly impossible to win when 20.5 percent of your base says they are less likely to support other Republicans for other offices.”

However, others familiar with the animosity the grassroots feel for the establishment of the Republican Party makes Trump and those candidates who support him more attractive. They argue that with the establishment controlling the “down ticket” candidates like Senator John McCain, who is despised by the grassroots, there is very little that does motivate the voters to vote, or compel the precinct committeemen to rallying support at all.

10 Comments

  1. The latest talk on Fox News is that the REPULSIVEcain Party will NEVER let Mr. Trump get the nomination. I can see now that they are Terrified of his stance on issue’s that they support, which he does not, and are already planning on how to be “unfair” to him. If this goes the way it looks like they are trying to do, and I was him, I would tear up the agreement that he signed and run as an Independent. As smart as a businessman that he is, I hope that he had a clause put in the agreement that allows him to “Op out” if in fact they do become unfair towards him.

    • Well I am Hispanic as is my family and you don’t speak for us. I guess we’re not “most”. We are very motivated to vote Trump in 2016!!

    • You mean most Hispanics who have come here illegally. Anyone who has come here legally has nothing to fear from Trump. Follow the laws Richard. It’s not a difficult concept to grasp.

    • I am also Hispanic and I would vote for my dog before I would be part of Hillary having a chance of winning. My dog is not a lying cheat. Also, I don’t vote a certain way because I’m put in a group. Like the left implies that women are gullible enough believe there is a war against them just because they keep repeating it. Hispanics are not all in favor of opening our country up to illegal aliens as is also implied. Women and Hispanics are damn well smart enough to make our own individual decisions, so quit putting us in groups and trying to divide us from other ethnicity’s.

  2. Personally I WILL vote for Trump before I will vote for any of those liberal losers that are running including the criminal Hillary and I won’t vote for any first time senaotor. We made that mistake once with Obummer and I won’t do it wiht Cruz or Rubio. Nor will I vote for any professional politician that supports amnesty.

  3. Typical msm ‘news’ This is not about trump but it is about PART POLITICS! Trump is not a party type and that is the problem with the r’s. But the indication that some would not vote is OLD NEWS, just look at the last election. Many at that time used the religion, or he has too much money, or the 48% statement to sit on their asses and do nothing to initiate change. Many claim to be I’s so they can then sit back and do nothing then claim they were not of either party and could not support eithr side. so much for independent thinkers. Right now if they can get enough doubt sown they poltical hacks think they can convince the people that their choices are wrong. That their candidate is evil and his ideas wrong. Just look how they have gotten the other ‘non-party’ candidates to be down graded and now all of a sudden the fair haired children are rising in poles even christi is up and he is IMO a big waste of space just like bush. No new ideas, no ability to tackle the hard issues just the same ol same ol and that is what the news medias want. There was an article I read about how the big $$ backers who own and buy sell trade these politicians will lose much if trump gains and runs and that my friends is the bottom line. The manipulators will lose and cant be allowed to happen. Just like wall street/banks were to big to let them fail! yet when all is said and done, who are the ones to gain the most from the gov’t supporting and giving $$ to. It wasn’t you or me the little guys. Again how does bho get to be a multimillionaire on a $440000 a year job? Same with hitlery, who was broke and poor when they left the white house and now is another multimillionaire with questionable actions to get a lot of the $$ while ‘serving’ herself, err……as sec of state approving sales of mierals to the russians etc.

  4. Uhm…most polls you can throw out the window concerning Trump. They will simply not accurately show the support he has among many demographics and certainly will not show how TICKED OFF most of us really are. Just trash it.

    • I agree with you, most articles that show Trump as falling behind is just propaganda by the traitorous media who know nothing about journalism, they are in the pockets of the libs as they are also. I always pass them up
      Go Trump! Get back our country!!!

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