By now, Republican voters are largely aware that the same Donald Trump whose campaign rightfully mocked Joe Biden for ducking debates in 2020 is skipping at least the first GOP presidential debate, being held later this week. It is a decision that raises legal, strategic, and public relations questions all at the same time.
Trump clearly does not want to give his opponents a chance to fire directly at him, so ducking the debate makes strategic sense, even if it undercuts his bravado about being the very best debater. Trump fans aren’t likely to be upset at him for skipping the public appearance and the vast majority will likely excuse it or proclaim it a genius move.
Whether it turns out well for Trump in the long run will largely depend on how well his allies in the race do in their attacks on Trump’s only serious rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump himself is very aware that many in the race are running to assist him, likely in the hopes of ending up at Trump’s Vice-President or at least earning themselves a cabinet position of some sort.
“Let them debate so I can see who I MIGHT consider for Vice President!” Trump posted on his Truth Social account, inviting the less than serious candidates to perform for his approval. It sounds belittling, but voters will almost certainly get to witness that sort of behavior from a few candidates anyway.
The former President’s decision to skip the debate does place some of his allies in awkward positions, as they suddenly have to account for former statements made on this very topic.
“If Joe Biden can’t handle the debate stage…. He can’t handle the world stage.” was the word from Trump devotee Ryan Fournier in 2020. As you might expect, he had nothing but praise for Trump’s decision to avoid the debate stage in 2023.
Arizona is actually home to one of the most glaring flip-flops on the importance of facing the voters on a debate stage. 2022 GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake savaged her Democrat opponent Katie Hobbs for weeks, calling her a “cowardice candidate” for not taking part in a debate. Just a few months later, Lake is expected to help Trump duck his own debate, by appearing for him as a surrogate after the debate is over. Far from being a cowardice candidate in Lake’s eyes, she praised Trump’s master-level trolling move on her own Twitter account on her own Twitter account.
Troll Level: Master
Everyone is going to be talking about (and watching) FOX’s two least favorite people:
Trump & Tucker pic.twitter.com/1gR7jSwoGw— Kari Lake (@KariLake) August 18, 2023
The fact is that Trump has nothing to gain from a debate, unless he can land a knock-out punch on DeSantis. But DeSantis is a skilled debater, so no one really expects that to happen, which means Trump could likely under-perform expectations. So why take the chance?
There is also the legal angle to consider. Trump is facing four separate trials and he often says things in media interviews that undercut his legal cases. There is no telling what he might say in front of a national audience, in response to attacks from other candidates, that would activate another legal tripwire. Far better to let your supporters attack DeSantis for you, do whatever you can to distract potential viewers by setting up yet another softball interview with Tucker Carlson to air at the same time, and just play it safe.
Trump mocked Biden for hiding in his basement, but perhaps he learned something from the 2020 campaign after all.