Former President Donald Trump and Congressman Ruben Gallego have the lead in their respective races in Arizona, new polling finds.
According to the New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state polls, former President Trump leads President Joe Biden by four points: 48% to 44%; 8% are undecided. In Georgia, 47% support Trump, 44% Biden, and 9% are undecided. In Michigan, 45% support Trump, 44% Biden, and 11% are undecided. In Nevada, 45% support Trump and 44% support Biden, while 11% are undecided. In North Carolina, 47% support Trump, and 42% Biden; 10% are undecided. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 47% support Trump, 45% Biden, and 8% are undecided.
“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
“Independent voters break for Trump over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%), Michigan (44%-35%), Nevada (43%-37%), Pennsylvania (49%-33%), and North Carolina (41%-38%). However they break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42%-38%) and Wisconsin (44%-41%),” Kimball noted.
- Biden leads Trump among voters who are members of labor unions in Michigan (48%-46%), Pennsylvania (50%-43%), and Wisconsin (55%-44%).
When third-party candidates are included on the ballot, support is pulled away from Biden more than Trump in five states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Support is drawn evenly from each candidate in Arizona and Michigan.
As the criminal trial is being held in New York, voters were asked which statement comes closer to their view: the trial is appropriate to hold Trump accountable, or the trial is a “witch hunt”. A plurality of voters in all swing states consider the trial appropriate to hold the former president accountable.
Voters were asked how a Trump guilty verdict would impact the likelihood of supporting him for president in 2024. A majority of Republicans say it would make them more likely to support Trump in 2024, while 15% of Pennsylvania Republicans say they are less likely to support Trump, along with 13% in Arizona, 11% in Wisconsin, 10% in Michigan, and 9% in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Impact of a guilty verdict on independent voters’ likelihood to support Trump:
- AZ: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- GA: 26% more likely, 32% less likely, 42% no impact
- MI: 26% more likely, 30% less likely, 45% no impact
- NC: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- NV: 25% more likely, 32% less likely, 43% no impact
- PA: 31% more likely, 24% less likely, 45% no impact
- WI: 24% more likely, 30% less likely, 47% no impact
In the Arizona U.S. Senate election, 45% support Democrat Ruben Gallego to replace retiring Senator Kyrsten Sinema, while 43% support Republican Kari Lake; 12% are undecided. Since March, Gallego’s support has increased by one point, and Lake by three.