A recently released poll, conducted before the endorsement by Robert Kennedy Jr. of former President Donald Trump, has found that race in Arizona between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is highly competitive.
While Trump maintains a narrow lead over Harris, the entry of her into the race has shifted voter dynamics, particularly among key demographic groups, according to pollsters.
The Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI), conducted from August 12–16, 2024, surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of ± 3.09%.
According to the poll, Trump holds a slim 3-point lead over Harris, with 47% of voters backing him compared to Harris’s 44%. This is the same margin Trump held in May when he led 44% to Biden’s 41%. Notably, the percentage of undecided voters has dropped from 15% in May to just 9% in August, indicating that Harris’s candidacy has pushed more voters to make a decision.
“Almost every poll is somewhere between Harris+5 and Trump+5. That suggests an almost tied race. We give a small edge to Trump in this poll – but, with more than two months to go, either candidate could win the state,” said David Byler, NPI Chief of Research.
When Trump was running against Joe Biden, Trump benefited from the presence of third-party candidates. Young voters, non-white Democrats, and others who had doubts about Biden’s fitness for office chose third-party candidates, which pushed Biden’s vote share down and increased the number of voters looking at third-party candidates like Kennedy.
According to the pollsters, with Harris on the ballot, Democrats are re-energized. The total third-party and unsure vote share is down, as wayward Democrats return to the fold and Independents get curious about Harris. Harris has captured meaningful leads among key voter blocs in August – some of which were Trump’s advantages in May. Independents, Hispanics, and younger voters (ages 18-34) are breaking for Harris.
More generally, voters have become happier about the major party candidates – leaving less room for third parties. The total number of “double haters” – those who have a negative opinion of both major party candidates” – declined from 15% to 10% between this AZPOP survey and the May edition. A whopping 92% of Trump supporters say their vote is for Trump rather than against Harris, while 86% of Harris voters are voting for her more than against Trump. About 1 in 5 Independents, moderates, and male Harris voters are voting against Trump.
“People are happier about the major party options now that Biden is gone,” said NPI’s Mike Noble. “That’s why RFK Jr. saw such a dramatic drop in the polls – and likely, in part, why he left the race.”
The poll asked voters whom they trust to do a better job dealing with specific issues. Trump holds the edge on immigration (+14), inflation (+9), taxes (+8), and gun policy (+7). Harris, however, leads on issues that resonate more with progressive voters, including abortion (+13) and climate change (+12). Harris has a slight edge with education (+5) and healthcare (+4), but neither candidate has significant advantages with uniting the country or affordable housing.
“One party switched their candidate, but this is still a Republican vs Democrat race,” noted Byler. “Trump has retained his strength on immigration – his signature issue – and is capitalizing on negative feelings about the Biden economy. He’ll likely double down on immigration since Harris led the Biden Administration’s efforts on that issue. Harris is hammering Trump on abortion, a weakness for the GOP since Dobbs, and climate change. If it was still Biden vs Trump, they’d be fighting about many of these same issues.”
The poll also delved into the personality traits voters associate with each candidate. Trump is seen as more disrespectful (+14), prejudiced (+12), and reckless (+9) but is also viewed as more patriotic (+11) and slightly more humorous (+6). Harris’s main strength is being perceived as more compassionate (+9).
“People remember the Trump economy fondly – but they don’t love Trump himself. The Trump team will want to hammer on his positive characteristics heading into November,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Harris is in a better position than Biden was. She takes the age issue off the table, and she keeps a lead in categories like compassion. She can also run against Trump, who – according to voters – scores poorly on some key personality traits.”
“But the real question – the one that no one knows the answer to – is how Harris fares under scrutiny. She just secured the nomination, and voters don’t know her the way they know Trump. Soon enough, they’ll get to know her and either decide to put her in the White House or choose to give Trump a second chance.”
An 80% majority of voters believe it was the right move for Biden to step down from the race, including 89% of Democrats, 82% of Independents, and 71% of Republicans. Additionally, 85% of Democrats say there was nothing wrong with Harris’s nomination process, including 82% who say she was also the right candidate for the nomination. And, 84% of Democrats think Tim Walz is a good enough VP pick.
“Trump’s ‘they forced Biden out’ attack on the Democrats’ nominating process isn’t going to land. The decision for Biden to step aside seems to have been a non-issue for most voters across parties,” observed Mike Noble. “Democrats are happy with Harris as their nominee and Walz as her VP pick. This all bodes well for Harris, who can focus on rallying support without the baggage of intra-party drama.”
Noble says that as the 2024 Presidential race heats up, Arizona remains a battleground with no clear victor in sight. This AZPOP lines up with the broad consensus of many other polls that have Trump and Harris roughly tied, and is what most expect to see in a swing state like Arizona. Both Trump and Harris have solidified their bases, but the key to victory will lie in swaying the undecided voters and focusing on the issues that matter most to Arizonans.