A new opinion poll was released this week by Noble Predictive Insights, regarding the relative standing of the two main contenders for the Republican nomination for governor at the 2026 primary.
Those of us who have watched political polling for some time have learned that polls have some unique characteristics, among them:
- They may not be totally accurate. Even polls conducted by experienced professionals, often fall short in the accuracy department.
- They cannot please everyone. Those who agree with the results of the polls think they are great. Those who do not agree, immediately question their validity and some times even the motives and integrity of those conducting the polls.
- Polls are only snapshots of opinions at one point in time. The same poll taken weeks or even days before or after may show a different outcome.
- Different pollsters may use different methodologies, resulting in different results.
- Polls should not be taken too seriously. They are useful tools to help policy makers make decisions, but should not be the only, or even the main, tool to be used.
This latest poll is causing more than the usual level of controversy for three reasons:
- The results are contrary to the common perception as to who will be, or should be, the primary election winner.
- Recent election irregularities have made many voters quite skeptical of any information provided by anyone considered to be part of the establishment.
- A simple typographical error on the results graphic awakened feelings in some folks that this was not a real poll.
This last point warrants further explanation. When the original email was sent out, the footnote on the graphic stated that the survey was conducted August 11-18, 2024. Some of those who disagreed with the result wasted no time leveling accusations of all kinds of foul play.
Their pre-conceived ideas about the pollster prevented them from considering that this may have been the result of a simple typo.
They did not bother to read the methodology section, where the date was correctly stated as August 11-18, 2025.
They did not bother to check with the pollster, as this writer did, to confirm that there was in fact a typographical error.
The original email cannot be recalled, but the correction was made where possible, and the corrected version is the one we are including here.
Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by Noble Predictive Insights from August 11–18, 2025 from an Arizona statewide registered voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to recent voter file data, the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, and recent Census data. The sample size was 948 registered voters, yielding a MoE of ± 3.18%. The total sample included 385 registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 4.99%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Similar surveys have been taken in May and February of this year, and the results, as expected, are different:
May, 2025
| Robson | Biggs | Kirk | Yee | Undecided |
| 24% | 17% | 17% | 6% | 37% |
February, 2025
| Biggs | Kirk | Robson | Jack McCain | Yee | Hoffman | Undecided |
| 14% | 14% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 47% |
Since future polls, taken by this pollster or others, will likely show different outcomes, it is a good idea to avoid getting too worked up over them, regardless of one’s agreement or disagreement with the results.
Polls are just tools used by political operators to push their propaganda on the general public or on specific target groups. This poll clearly falls under that definition.
The only polls that might represent reality are some of the ones conducted by political campaigns solely for internal use. But, by definition, their results are not made public.
So, the only poll I respond to is the election itself.
David Schweikert was on Tucson’s “The PodFather” (Chris DeSimone’s show) about 2-3 weeks back, …and Schweikert says some “really big momey boys came to him and tried to get him to run for Gov” …and furthermore, “their polling frightened them about Biggs vs. Hobbs, that she would win”. Schweikert, nobody’s fool, politely demurred, noting how he had achieved some serious seniority in Congress, and wasn’t going to give it up. His on-air demeanor seemed to indicate he thought it was all bullsh*t, wanting to split the vote for Robson. These McCainites are blowing smoke….lots and lots and lots of smoke. (Hey, gotta give the customer something)
This is pure propaganda and “preconditioning” of the minds of perspective voters that a true conservative like Biggs cannot win and only a RINO like Robson can win. My unofficial field polls do not support this result.
It is not the Rs that will support Robson, it is the idiot uncommitted and ill informed independents.
I don’t buy it! No one asked me and I support Biggs.
A vote for Biggs is a vote for Arizona. He has a proven record in Congress and will lead us out of the cesspool that the hobbit put us in. These polls are garbage and they should go back to burger flipping. I WILL NEVER vote for another RINO. I’m sick of the rotten McCain uniparty! Kick them all out!!
This joke of a poll didn’t deserve this level of analysis, but good work, Jose.
Noble is an establishment hatchetman.
He fabricates numbers and narratives for the Uniparty. His job is to suppress the Ameira First candidate.
Jack McCain might as well drop out now. A chip off the old worthless block and a defender of his RINO dad. Just one more McCain that wants to live off the public teat.
You would have to work really hard and long to target this poll at the few potential voters out there who might support RINO Robson.
What a joke! But not funny.