Is the Arizona State Senate About to Shift Left?

Capital observers are paying attention to potential changes in the leadership structure of the State Senate, as current Senate President Warren Petersen may be contemplating stepping down from his leadership position early in order to focus on his race for Attorney General.

To be clear, no public announcements have been made, but politicos have noted that Petersen continues to raise the profile of Senate President Pro Tem TJ Shope, who is clearly Petersen’s chosen successor, whether before the 2026 legislative session or after the 2026 general election.

Shope is the Senate’s most moderate Republican and is the last “Medicaid Expansion” Republican left from the bitter 2013 fight that split legislative Republicans.  Back then, Shope and his fellow moderates split from the GOP majorities in both chambers to back Governor Jan Brewer and every legislative Democrat in a bitter and expensive fight.  Joining Shope in the House were Frank Pratt, Kate Brophy McGee, Heather Carter, Doug Coleman, Jeff Dial, Doris Goodale, Ethan Orr and Bob Robson.  Their Senate allies were John McComish, Rich Crandall, Adam Driggs, Steve Pierce and Bob Worsley.  Every Republican on this list was either subsequently defeated or retired, except Shope.

“You should give Shope credit for trying to evolve as he saw his teammates go down to defeat over the years.  The guy is a survivor, and a gifted politician,” said one lobbyist who has been active at the Capitol for decades.

His political skill set notwithstanding, the choice of Shope is still considered an odd one coming from Petersen, who has long been one of the State Senate’s most conservative members.  With so many more conservative members to choose from, why elevate Shope?

“Petersen values personal loyalty, perhaps even more than ideology, which is why you saw him undercut Senator Shamp when she was Majority Leader.” said one GOP state committeeman, who says she nevertheless supports Petersen in his race for Attorney General, “It proves that these legislators are regular human beings who can let things get personal just like the rest of us, but I don’t think it means that Petersen is squishy like Shope.  His record is still very conservative overall.”

The race for Senate President is by no means settled, even though Petersen’s assistance will carry a lot of weight with newer members of the body.  New Majority Leader John Kavanagh could run, Majority Whip Frank Carroll could as well, and Yuma Senator Tim Dunn and Shamp herself are also mentioned as viable contenders.

“Don’t count out Shamp,” said another lobbyist, who felt that many of her predictions about the budget deal cut by Petersen with Governor Hobbs were proven accurate. “If a Republican wins the Governor’s race then maybe it matters less, because Shope will largely do as the Governor asks.  But if Hobbs wins re-election, Republicans may prefer someone who is willing to take on Katie Hobbs directly.”