As usual, a significant number of voters are going to be facing that question as they cast their votes this election season. Unfortunately, finding the proper answer is always difficult because advocates on both sides of the issue make some good points. Finding the answer is further complicated because some proponents, and opponents, of the overrides make it sound as if the world as we know it will come to an end if their position does not prevail.
Fortunately, in Arizona we have in both the Revised Statutes and the Constitution some rather well-defined guidelines. Those guidelines come in the form of aggregate expenditure limits, but those limits are quite liberal, which raises the question we are dealing with here, namely whether overrides are necessary or even desirable.
Whenever we deal with difficult matters that are covered by laws, it is best to go to the source itself, as follows:
ARS 15-911 reads in part:
“B. On or before November 1 of each year, the state board of education shall determine and report to the president of the senate, the speaker of the house of representatives, the chairman of the joint legislative budget committee and the governor’s office of strategic planning and budgeting the aggregate expenditures of local revenues as defined in article IX, section 21, subsection (4), Constitution of Arizona, for all school districts for the current year.”
AZ constitution, article IX, section 21 reads in part:
“(2) The economic estimates commission shall determine and publish prior to May 1 of each year the aggregate expenditure limitation for all school districts for the following fiscal year. The aggregate expenditure limitation shall be determined by adjusting the total amount of expenditures of local revenues for all school districts for fiscal year 1979-1980 to reflect the changes in student population in the school districts and the cost of living, and multiplying the result by 1.10. The aggregate expenditures of local revenues for all school districts shall not exceed the limitation prescribed in this section, except as provided in subsection (3) of this section.
(3) Expenditures in excess of the limitation determined pursuant to subsection (2) of this section may be authorized by the legislature for a single fiscal year, by concurrent resolution, upon affirmative vote of two-thirds of the membership of each house of the legislature.”
In other words, Arizona voters have imposed limits on spending, but those limits are not arbitrary. They are adjusted up or down based on enrollment numbers and the rate of inflation. The only arbitrary portion of this formula is the 10% bonus that is added to the limit regardless of the effect of enrollment or inflation.
In practice, the expenditure limit is more a suggestion than a rigid limit because the legislature may override the limit, which they have been doing recently.
Of course, individual school districts are free to override their own budgets, whether it makes sense or not, if they are approved by the voters in their districts. The purpose of providing the following data is to help voters decide whether to approve or reject requested overrides. With that in mind, let us look at what has been happening with the two components involved.
ENROLLMENT: (Data is statewide, individual districts may vary)
| FISCAL YEAR | ENROLLMENT | CHANGE |
| 2022 | 1,132,803 | — |
| 2023 | 1,125,883 | (-) 0.62 % |
| 2024 | 1,115,111 | (-) 0.96 % |
| 2025 | 1,099,529 | (-) 1.40 % |
| 2026 | 1,073,531 | (-) 2.36 % |
Source: AZ Dept. of Education, as reported by AZEdTribune
The reduction in enrollment suggests that spending reductions may be in order, but that has not been the case.
The issue of rising spending while enrollment is falling has been addressed recently in a related article that may be read HERE
INFLATION:
In the following table we are showing spending per pupil rather than overall spending, so that the effect of declining enrollment is automatically applied.
The numbers are not adjusted for inflation, but since inflation must be considered, the annual average inflation rate has been added.
| FISCAL YEAR |
PER PUPIL SPENDING | SPENDING CHANGE |
INFLATION RATE |
| 2020 | 8,785 | — | — |
| 2021 | 9.611 | (+) 9.4 % | 4.7 |
| 2022 | 10,315 | (+) 7.3 % | 8.0 |
| 2023 | 11,297 | (+) 9.5 % | 4.1 |
| 2024 | 12,003 | (+) 6.2 % | 2.9 |
Source: USSCHOOLINDEX.ORG and GOOGLE SEARCH
Except for one year, per pupil spending has been increasing at about twice the yearly rate of inflation. We could not find reliable data for years beyond 2024.
Many voters are feeling the effect of inflation and are being more cautious when deciding how to spend their money. The foregoing material should help decide whether to spend more on education via approval of budget overrides.
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