Portland streetcar success inflated, missed 5 key targets

“More problematic, we found that available Portland Streetcar performance results – even if not previously reported or tracked by PBOT – show targets were not met for five measures: on time performance; frequency of service; vehicle failure; spare vehicles; and sponsorship. Ultimately, the City did not effectively use performance information for management decisions. PBOT told us that improvements are underway.” PORTLAND STREETCAR: City transit targets unmet, better performance management needed – Office of the City Auditor Portland, Oregon

For years, the politicians in Tucson, Arizona have been using the supposed success of Portland’s streetcar as justification for spending millions of dollars on approximately 4 miles of track. Now, an audit by the Office of the City Auditor in Portland shows that the success was a mere myth in 2013.

Administrators for the streetcar system publicly overstated 2013’s estimated ridership by 19 percent. They also claimed that nearly every vehicle arrived on time, which was not accurate either.

Overall, the audit found the streetcar system lacks clear targets and reliable data and the organization is “convoluted and confusing.”

The finding that most disturbs residents of Tucson is related to economic development. Residents were assured that the streetcar would bring development long the 4 mile track, as it had in Portland.

The audit reads:

When we began this audit, PBOT asked us to include Portland  Streetcar economic development goals to our audit scope. Portland Streetcar records reference different ways to measure economic development, such the net decrease in automobile use (i.e. trips not taken), density of development (e.g. floor area ratio), or rate of development(e.g. annual percentage growth in an area’s building stock).

As discussed earlier, the 2012 City-TriMet Master Agreement frame work includes annually reported development measures. PBOT told us these measures were selected because they are indicators of both development and reduction of auto demand, supporting land use goals. However, we found the City has not yet selected measures and regularly reported on its economic development efforts related to Portland Streetcar.

Based on studies PBOT provided to us, we conclude this research has yet to describe a causal relationship of how streetcars may affect economic development. In 2013, the Metro regional government’s consultants issued a report that included a literature and research review. Of the 35 studies they reviewed, the consultants identified a few specific to streetcars but noted they were of limited scope and did not attempt to isolate the effects of streetcars from other factors (e.g. urban renewal, regulatory context, public investments beyond streetcar, etc.) that may have affected property development and pricing. For example, a 2005 study of the Portland Streetcar’s original North South line described the development impacts as being “correlated” or having “coincided” with streetcar investment.

These reports discuss the need for new, statistically rigorous research – specifically a multiple regression (hedonic) analysis – to attempt to quantify the impact of streetcar relative to other factors that impact real estate pricing. PBOT told us, as part of a federal grant, an economic development analysis will provide much needed additional data on the relationship between streetcar system investment and housing and employment growth, and sustainable development patterns.

The audit also addresses shortcomings with Oregon Ironworks:

We found PBOT did not approve a reliability demonstration plan before using Oregon Iron Works (OIW) vehicles. The City contract with OIW requires that a reliability demonstration plan be developed by the contractor for approval by the City before the vehicles were used to carry riders. PBOT told us the first of the OIW vehicles was used to carry riders in June 2013. LTK Engineering, PBOT’s vehicle engineering service provider through PSI, conditionally approved versions of the plan in February 2013 and again in January 2014, and directed OIW to resubmit a revised plan each time. We found Portland Streetcar operated all five of the OIW vehicles to carry riders before LTK Engineering provided final approval of the plan in March 2014.

Furthermore, initial vehicle failure results show that OIW has not met minimum contractual requirements for seven of the nine vehicle systems. The City contract with OIW requires vehicle systems to meet specific performance requirements, assuming routine maintenance is performed as recommended. Reliability must be demonstrated while vehicles carry riders during the warranty period. If systems fail to meet requirements after an agreed initial time period, OIW is responsible for making corrections, at its expense, before the end of the warranty period. OIW is supposed to provide monthly reliability reports. However, the fleet’s initial performance results were not provided until July 2014, the only report received thus far. LTK Engineering reviewed the draft and questioned the gap in the time period covered by OIW’s report, as well as the calculation for the trucks and suspension system results. Furthermore, LTK Engineering stated that, for all but two systems (friction braking, trucks and suspension), the vehicle results are failing to meet the contractual requirements. PBOT told us that no specific issues have come from the reliability report or warranty claims, and there have been field modifications done on the vehicles.

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