USAF Failed A-10 Schemes Could Benefit Southern Arizona

An A-10 takes flight. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Luke Kitterman/Released)

In its recent report on the United States Air Force and the venerable A-10 Warthog, the GAO found that decisions were made without “quality information on the full implications of A-10 divestment.” Yet, for years, despite protest from all corners, the USAF and the Department of Defense plunged ahead with the de facto mothballing of the aircraft.

That stubbornness led Airmen, the public, and powerful policy makers to distrust the current Secretary of the Air Force, Debra James, and then Air Force Chief of Staff General James Welsh. Beyond suffering in the public relations arena, the GAO report predicts that the USAF will suffer in terms of performance.

Related article: GAO: Air Force plan to retire A-10 did not fully weigh impact, costs

Recent emails obtained by the Arizona Daily Independent show that already the USAF is scrambling to recover from the secretive mothballing of the A-10 against congressional edicts and wishes.

When USAF decided the A-10 would be divested, they cut programs at Hill Air Force base in Utah. As a result, workers left the area in droves. Now that A-10, due to intervention by Arizona Sen. John McCain, Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, and Rep. Martha McSally, is expected to be in service until 2022, the USAF scrambling to find qualified workers:

Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2016 11:22 AM
To: Nils Urman; Charles Casey; John Moffatt; Patrick Cavanaugh
Subject: Workforce Strategy mtg. AMARG
When: Tuesday, June 21, 2016 3:00 PM-5:00 PM.
Where: KSC rm 301

Additional information:

Joyce Peters indicates that Ogden Utah is overloaded with work and that AMARG at DMAFB is a
likely site to take on work for the F-16 and A-10 craft. This is a possible 500 jobs to our area. I will
share their visit agenda with you once I receive it. …

Gerri,

I am part of a team of Air Force workforce strategy, professional development and training experts who will visit Tucson next week to analyze the civilian workforce in the Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group (AMARG) — also called “The Boneyard”– at Davis-Monthan AFB. Our findings will be used to assist AMARG with its current workforce challenges, and to determine if the local education, training and workforce services could support significant increases in the Davis-Monthan civilian and contractor workforce, should additional workload be transferred to Tucson.

Is your Pima County One-Stop Career Center the one that services Davis-Monthan AFB? If so, I was wondering if my team of 3-4 could meet with you or another appropriate representative anytime next Tuesday afternoon, 21 June, to discuss the State of Arizona’s workforce available services related to recruitment, training and outplacement. NOTE: We successfully team with
AmericaJobCenter Network in other states to recruit laid off workers from the private sector, which is why that is included as a topic.

While the people of Pima County, the eighth poorest metropolitan area in the country, will be thrilled to have an infusion of 500 high paying jobs in their economy, the GAO report reveals the utter folly of the USAF’s divestiture schemes.

It was in fact a radio show host, James T. Harris, who broadcasts across southern Arizona including Pima County, that first exposed the mothball plans. In a 2013 interview, Harris asked Sen. Jeff Flake about the then-rumored plans to shelve the A-10. Flake, admitted that the rumors were in fact true. After Flake’s revelation was reported by the Arizona Daily Independent (ADI) an all-out public battle for the Warthog began.

That battle, which the USAF waged savagely against Airmen, citizens and policymakers culminated in the GAO report, according to retired A-10 pilot Lt. Colonel Tom Norris. In an appearance on Harris’ show last week, Norris discussed the long war for the Warthog and the GAO report.

“First of all this report was generated in large part because of the efforts of this show, ADI, your callers – support across the country for our brothers and sisters on the ground,” said Norris. “It didn’t happen by chance, not because the Air Force requested it. It happened because our civilian oversight mandated that it happened. They did not trust what the Air Force was saying based on what the customers on the ground had told them.”

Norris called the report a “big victory to our brothers and sisters on the ground.” He explained that the report is “a very impartial look” at what the USAF is chartered to do, and to determine if it has used valid metrics to make its decisions. “Page one of this report has two startling findings. The Air Force didn’t have adequate information. So number one; they didn’t even bother with the true gaps in capability. That’s a big one. Especially when it is my son or my daughter on the ground at risk while these people just pencil whip justification of divestment. That to me is a big deal. The second piece – to quote the report – is their metrics on how they analyze cost savings were not even remotely credible or accurate. That also says a lot as a taxpayer that we have got a DOD entity that is doing what they want to do and clearly resent the mandate of the people and our ground troops.”

The GAO report reads in part:

While A-10 pilots are recognized as the Air Force experts in providing close air support (CAS) to friendly forces, the A-10 and its pilots also perform other missions that are important to ongoing operations or to combatant commander operational plans and divestment will result in reduced capacity and capability in these other areas. The Air Force is taking a number of steps to try to mitigate any potential negative impacts from its proposed A-10 divestments. However, the Air Force has not established clear requirements for the missions the A-10 performs, and in the absence of these requirements, has not fully identified the capacity or capability gaps that could result from the A-10 divestment. Without a clear understanding of the capability or capacity gaps and risks that could result from A-10 divestment, it is also unclear how effective or necessary the Air Force’s and the department’s mitigation strategies will be. For example, although the Air Force has several efforts underway to generally mitigate the loss of capabilities that would result from A-10 divestment, it has not identified how or if it will replace the A-10’s role in combat search and rescue missions. Depending on the specific mitigation strategy chosen, the Air Force may have to address a number of different secondary impacts that could affect its ability to execute existing missions. The A-10 is one example of a challenge DOD could continue to face as it balances current needs against investing in the future force to replace aging systems. For example, in June 2014, GAO reported on a Navy challenge in balancing current capability and capacity with future modernization needs. Overall, the department does not have guidance to ensure that the services and DOD are collecting quality information to inform divestment decisions on major weapon systems before the end of their service lives. Without quality information that fully identifies gaps and associated risks resulting from divestment that can be used to develop mitigation strategies, DOD and the Air Force may not be well-positioned to best balance current demands and future needs.

The report concluded, “With regard to the A-10, GAO recommends that the Air Force fully identify mission gaps, risks, and mitigation strategies, and also develop high-quality, reliable cost estimates of the savings from divestment before again proposing to divest its A-10 fleet, and that DOD establish quality information requirements to guide major weapon system divestments.”

“So the big thing with the GAO report is that the Air Force hasn’t identified the gaps but everyone else on the planet has,” said Norris.

[Read the entire report here]