Flake Future Is Dim, Ward, Sinema Could Defeat Him

Flake 2014 selfie

A small statewide Arizona survey of 400 likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters shows Republican incumbent Senator Jeff Flake twelve points behind his primary Republican opponent Kelli Ward and eight points behind prospective Democratic opponent U.S. Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (D, AZ-9).

Q. If the primary election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kelli Ward?

28.2%  Jeff Flake
42.5%  Kelli Ward
5.1%    Some other candidate
24.2%  Don’t know, Refused

Q. If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kyrsten Sinema?

32.5%  Jeff Flake
40.5%  Kyrsten Sinema
27.0%  Don’t know, Refused

The Republican Primary Election sample was of 273 high efficacy Republican and PND/Independent voters and has a margin of error of ±5.93%.  The General Election sample of 400 high efficacy general election voters has a margin of error of ±4.88%.

The survey showed that Congresswoman Sinema is not known by 45% of the electorate in Arizona while Ward was beaten by nearly 100,000 votes in her primary election against Senator John McCain in 2016.

Additionally, General Election turnout in off-Presidential Cycle races in Arizona shows that Republicans historically have a twelve-point turnout advantage, which steepens the climb for any Democratic contender.

The survey showed that Sinema enjoys a 51% approval rating among voters in her Congressional district which is largely within the cities of Phoenix and Tempe, which are more progressive, urban areas of the State.

Although a 14-point margin is a sizeable gap for Senator Flake, Arizona is known for its volatility when it comes to statewide races. Politicos such as Governors Fife Symington and Jan Brewer have been able to successfully rally from greater margins in shorter periods of time.

The audience tested in the statewide live caller survey was set to reflect the 2018 General Election in Arizona.

19 Comments on "Flake Future Is Dim, Ward, Sinema Could Defeat Him"

  1. Working Man Blues | August 27, 2017 at 12:48 am |

    Could not happen to a more deserving flim flam Flake.

  2. The Oracle of Tucson | August 27, 2017 at 1:53 am |

    Even if the Flake ran unopposed for anything at this point he’d still be hard pressed not to lose.
    Always being the trend setter, the people spoke loudly and clearly last year in the rejection of politics as normal. Sadly the Flake tuned out and refused to hear the voices of discord or adjust to life outside the beltway swamp and instead favored becoming a never Trumpster.
    With little to show for the last six years beyond a change of address and a fictional bathroom reader with its plagiarized title on the totally foreign subject of conservation, it’s past time to replace the Flake with anyone else.
    The AZ GOP machine, like Flake himself is out of step and out of touch with the voters of the state. This self imposed sensory deprivation of reality will joyfully force voters to reject and replace the Flake in the primary.
    Coming home with his $4mil war chest is far too little, and far too late to save himself from his suicidal break from voters.
    His biggest threat isn’t coming from his opponents in the primary, it’s coming from simply being Jeff Flake.
    Adios dumbass.

    The Oracle

    • Yep, the AZ GOP is extremely worthless. If Flake somehow wins the primary, I will write someone in, as I did when McCain last ran.

      • Turn about is fair play and like Flake, AZ primary voters MUST follow the example Flake set in the 2016 presidential primary and refuse to vote for the winner of the GOP primary if it is someone they did not vote for in the primary, that someone being Jeff Flake!

  3. Wow, what a choice. Flake or Sinema. Two losers if there ever were. Both are progressive liberals, We know what Sinema is but Flake has been lying to the rest of us for a very long time. McCain is his mentor and we all know that McCain’s time has come and gone and that George Soros is a big McCain benefactor.

    • All we can do is hope that Kelli Ward has finally learned how to actually put on a competent campaign and she beats Senator Flake-the-useless because if he wins the primary there is no way AZ conservatives can vote for Flake. With the publishing of a parody of Goldwater’s seminal book, Flake has joined the Democrat smear machine against AZ conservatives as he spouts the Democrat charge that we conservatives hate immigrants BECAUSE we want to enforced our immigration laws against ILLEGAL immigrants. With his charge that AZ conservatives are nativist, Senator Flake shows himself to be a bald faced liar.

  4. Hoi Polloi Boy | August 27, 2017 at 6:49 am |

    How about a poll showing “If the election were held today, would you vote for Kelli Ward or Krysten Sinema?”

    Flake is going down.

    • That is exactly the thought that came to my mind. There is an obvious reason why that question was not asked. Dr. Ward would win in a landslide. Ward in 2018

      • Don`t bet on Dr. Ward beating Sinema. Ward ran a wholly ineffectual campaign against McCain last year and Sinema is a more than competent campaigner who will use every smear in the Democrat playbook to beat Ward, much as McCain did to beat Ward in 2016. Has Ward learned from her woeful showing against McCain? Let`s hope so!

  5. Richard Hernandez | August 27, 2017 at 11:29 am |

    Let’s hope that voters elect someone who will represent all of Arizona. I had enough of the Republicans only! I am sick and tired of a US Senator that ONLY votes party line.

    First is the people of Arizona , not Trump or party. What do we need? A Independent thinking cognative responsible person who will Advocate for the greater good.

    We have not had that in Flake for sure.

    Richard Hernandez

    • Richard: While Republicans rarely
      cross party lines, Democrats NEVER cross
      party lines.

      Now this is likely because both party
      leaderships engineer the representatives
      that the voters “get” to choose between.

      This has been clearly delineated in the
      2016 Seth Rich leak of the D.N.C. documents
      to Wikileaks. ^^^

      ^^^based on currently available evidence with
      an approximate 95% confidence level.

      1. Confidence level based on the volume and
      speed of downloaded documents not plausible
      over any remote connection.
      2. I.P. address of incursion verified to be
      in Washington D.C. area.
      3. Democrats calling Seth Rich assassination
      a botched robbery when nothing was stolen and
      he was shot twice in the back, not even remotely
      likely given circumstances.
      4. Someone crossed the Clintons, and
      four decades of “accidents” surrounding
      these perpetrators is significant>.

    • You are wrong and you know it. No one voted WITH Democrats more than Senator Flake, heck he has even joined the Democrats in smearing AZ conservative voters as nativist (nativist is defined as those who dislike legal immigrants) just because we demand that the Federal government enforce our immigration laws with respect to ILLEGAL immigrants. The Democrat Party is the last place one would look for an “independent thinking cognitive responsible person who will Advocate for the common good.” The Democrats are the Party of group think and group politics, using group differences to divide us to win elections for the sole purpose of controlling us. For the Democrat Party, “the greater good” is the total control of the individual by those in charge of the government.

      • Luke: I do not consider Flake, McCain,
        McConnell, Romney etc. to be Republicans.
        These are committed R.I.N.O.’s.

        Sorry if there was any confusion there.

        The same situation with Democrats.

        Bernie, Hillary, Obama, Grijalva et. al. are
        tried and true Communists, and not theoretically

      • Jerome R Petruk | September 1, 2017 at 9:13 pm |

        Absolute BS. Flake was a strong advocate of right wing philosophy. Please cite exactly when he “smeared AZ voters as nativist. It never happened. Keep the rhetoric out and the truth in. Otherwise, we on the right would be nothing different than those in the “wrong”.

  6. We need to attack AZ GOP right now – forcing them to side with Dr. Ward.

  7. I can assure you this independent will never vote for Flake or McCain again – period.

    Drain the stinky swamp!

  8. Jeff Oatridge | August 28, 2017 at 12:44 am |

    This is awesome! Can’t wait for Arizona to be Flake free!

  9. Jerome R Petruk | September 1, 2017 at 9:06 pm |

    You all are crazy. Flake voted against Dumbocrats every day! His record is more to the right than the vast majority of so called Republicans. Yes, he doesn’t agree with Trump all the time. Do you? Let me make things clear to you. Sinema agrees with Trump 0 percent of the time. Ward cannot win. Don’t delude yourself. If Flake loses the prim, it’s Ward Vs Sinema. It’ll be a slaughter and AZ will have a pagan, radical left wing Senator. We must not let this happen.

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