A small statewide Arizona survey of 400 likely Arizona 2018 General Election voters shows Republican incumbent Senator Jeff Flake twelve points behind his primary Republican opponent Kelli Ward and eight points behind prospective Democratic opponent U.S. Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (D, AZ-9).
Q. If the primary election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kelli Ward?
28.2% Jeff Flake
42.5% Kelli Ward
5.1% Some other candidate
24.2% Don’t know, Refused
Q. If the General Election for United States Senate were held today, would you vote for [Rotate] Jeff Flake or Kyrsten Sinema?
32.5% Jeff Flake
40.5% Kyrsten Sinema
27.0% Don’t know, Refused
The Republican Primary Election sample was of 273 high efficacy Republican and PND/Independent voters and has a margin of error of ±5.93%. The General Election sample of 400 high efficacy general election voters has a margin of error of ±4.88%.
The survey showed that Congresswoman Sinema is not known by 45% of the electorate in Arizona while Ward was beaten by nearly 100,000 votes in her primary election against Senator John McCain in 2016.
Additionally, General Election turnout in off-Presidential Cycle races in Arizona shows that Republicans historically have a twelve-point turnout advantage, which steepens the climb for any Democratic contender.
The survey showed that Sinema enjoys a 51% approval rating among voters in her Congressional district which is largely within the cities of Phoenix and Tempe, which are more progressive, urban areas of the State.
Although a 14-point margin is a sizeable gap for Senator Flake, Arizona is known for its volatility when it comes to statewide races. Politicos such as Governors Fife Symington and Jan Brewer have been able to successfully rally from greater margins in shorter periods of time.
The audience tested in the statewide live caller survey was set to reflect the 2018 General Election in Arizona.