A new poll finds incumbent Governor Doug Ducey with a double-digit lead in his race against Democratic challenger, David Garcia. Ducey maintains his lead throughout Arizona, leading in both Maricopa and Pima County, as well as in rural regions.
According to the poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), the governor takes a majority of the vote with 54%, Garcia is next with 37%, and Green Party candidate Angel Torres has 2%. Only 7% remain undecided.
“Governor Ducey is dominating the vote with a 17-point lead,” says Mike Noble, chief pollster of OHPI. “The incumbent clearly has a large support system behind him.”
When looking at favorability, Ducey continues to have overwhelming support, leading by 29 points in Maricopa County, 11 points in Pima County and 42 points in rural areas. Garcia has -5%, -1% and -11%, respectively.
In addition, voters were broken down by level of education. Of those who support Ducey, over half are college graduates or have post-graduate education. Of Garcia’s supporters, over three quarters (77%) have college degrees or a higher level of education, a heavy reliance that appears to hamper Garcia’s chances of cobbling together a winning coalition.
“Throughout the state, it’s clear that most Arizonans are leaning toward Governor Ducey,” says Noble. “In the next few weeks leading up to the election, it’ll be interesting to watch the strategies in Garcia’s campaign as he attempts to bring Ducey down.”
The 48% cell phone and 52% landline poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on October 3rd, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4%.