WASHINGTON – Heavy early voting and a steady stream of voters at polling places were boosting turnout in Tuesday’s Arizona primary, where former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders competed in a slimmed-down Democratic presidential field.
Polls gave Biden and his resurgent campaign a sizable lead in Arizona, where 67 delegates were at stake among the 441 delegates available along with Illinois and Florida – states the former vice president won, according to news reports.
Even before the polls opened, interest in the primary was heavy in Arizona, with the state Democratic Party reporting that about 480,000 early ballots had been returned, more than all the Democratic primary ballots cast in the 2016 presidential preference primary.
It’s not clear how many of the early ballots would go to the two remaining candidates, with 12 Democrats still on the ballot who later pulled out. But Paul Bentz, senior vice president of research and strategy at HighGround, said that even with some votes going to former candidates, he expected a “handy victory” for Biden.
An average of polls Tuesday morning by FiveThirtyEight gave Biden 51.6% of the primary vote in Arizona to Sanders’ 26.9%. Bentz said a surge in ballots after Super Tuesday, when much of the Democratic field dropped out, are “more than likely to break Biden’s way.”
Mike Noble, chief of research of OH Predictive Insights, said that for him it was not a question of whether Biden will win, but how much. He said it is only a matter of time before Sanders will drop out as the “pressure will continue to mount after each election.”
“What we’re seeing right now is that the raw total number of voters is higher than 2016 … and turnout for this election will be right around 50%,” Noble said.
Biden entered the day with 898 delegates of the 1,991 he needs to clinch the nomination, according to a tally from the New York Times.
Despite fears that the coronavirus might affect turnout – and the fact that Maricopa County cut its polling locations from 229 to 148 to cope with the virus – turnout appeared to be good and voters reported a positive experience at the polls Tuesday, said Arizona Democratic Party spokesperson Matt Grodsky.
Rheanna Schmidt voted early Tuesday at a West Valley location and said there were more polling volunteers than people voting, adding the process was smooth and quick because she had the proper identification.
But Schmidt said. “I’d be lying,” if she claimed she wasn’t worried about voting amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
“There’s been some talk recently that this coronavirus situation is kind of our generation’s World War II and it is a big situation that we’re having to deal with,” Schmidt said. “It was important to me to vote because … I made a commitment to my grandfather who was in World War II that I would always vote.”
Bentz said closed polls could lead to voter confusion but “because we have vote-by-mail, we were able to successfully conduct an election and ensure that the majority of those who wanted to vote were able to have their voice heard.”
The roughly 480,000 early ballots cast in this election represent about 39% of the state’s registered Democrats, according to a statement from the Arizona Democratic Party. Bentz said that while some of the early votes will go to candidates who dropped out of the race, most voters over age 50 will break Biden’s way.
It only became a two-man field in the last two weeks after Biden, who had been trailing in early states, staged a rout in South Carolina. That was followed by strong showings on Super Tuesday, when voters in 14 states went to the polls.
Within days, once-prominent Democratic hopefuls including former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the race. Buttigieg, Klobuchar quickly endorsed Biden, along with California Sen. Kamala Harris and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, two presidential hopefuls who dropped out earlier.
Endorsements in Arizona followed, from Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and Phoenix Rep. Ruben Gallego. Rep. Greg Stanton, D-Phoenix, said he voted for Biden by mail two weeks ago.
“Biden is the strongest candidate to really unite this country, Republicans and Democrats around our common values and a common vision for the future of America,” Stanton said Tuesday.
He believes Biden has the best chance of defeating President Donald Trump while allowing down-ticket Democrats to make gains in the House and Senate.