For the last couple of years Arizona voters saw Kari Lake on their television sets each night, reading the news, conducting interviews, and providing calm guidance on everything from the need to mask up to deal with the Covid-19 virus, to whatever disturbing story might be on the news that night.
Since launching her bid to be Governor of the state, Lake has left behind her lifelong persona and transformed herself into a Trump-style brawler, taking shots at the usual suspects – the swamp, the establishment, the media, etc, all while largely ignoring that until she parted ways with Channel 12 after 22 years, she was a powerful part of all of those things.
And in this battle between style and substance, style is clearly prevailing — a recent poll had her up more than 20 points over her closest GOP rival.
That has party activists excited and concerned at the same time. Those who love her believe she is a lock to be elected Governor, in spite of a tough GOP primary ahead, and a reasonably strong likely Democratic nominee. Those who worry note that in recent days Lake has taken shots at the Arizona Republican Party for even considering a caucus system that could not take effect for years yet, and Lake bragged on Steve Bannon’s program about “walking out” of a recent Republican Governor’s Association meeting because they were not her kind of people.
Lake told Bannon “…if I have to make nice with people who I don’t think appreciate the Trump Republican movement and the patriotic Americans that are rising up, then I don’t want to win if that’s how I have to do it.”
“If Lake is going to self-fund her race to the tune of millions, then telling the RGA to screw off is a luxury she can afford. She can dump all over Ducey for applause now and ignore that he’s the Chairman of the RGA and they would ordinarily be her very best friend in what will be an expensive general election. She can attack the AZ GOP as swamp creatures. But if she can’t win all by herself, then a strategy of attacking the very people you’ll want on your team later is going to cost Republicans the Governor’s office.” explained one longtime conservative activist who identified himself as leaning towards Lake at this early stage, in spite of what he considered strategic mistakes.
One Trump supporter who described herself as liking Yee but leaning Salmon was less charitable, saying “She says she only wants your help if you are a true Trump Republican, but that isn’t 51% of the vote. Even Trump knows there are swing voters and to win elections he needs to work with and talk to voters who aren’t already in his corner. It just seems suicidal to write off huge groups of voters because they’re not pure enough, especially for Lake, who spent years working against us.”
Yet Lake charges full speed ahead, powered by a grassroots group that isn’t concerned about how she will win. “I’m glad she’s telling these other people that she doesn’t want their help. They’re no good anyway. When was the last time the GOP Governor’s Association or whoever actually got a conservative elected Governor in any state? She doesn’t want them and she doesn’t need them.” exuded one supporter.
Lake’s competitors are following a different strategy, with several working hard to collect endorsements and support from conservatives or conservative groups whose support may make a significant difference in a close contest. State Treasurer Kimberly Yee has been pursuing a local officeholder strategy, and has collected more than 30 endorsements from current and former mayors, city councilmembers, constables and such. Former Congressman Matt Salmon has bragged about his endorsements from national conservative leaders like Senators Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and Cynthia Lummis, Congressmen Andy Biggs and Jim Jordan, former Senator Jim DeMint, and national groups like Citizens United, Freedom Works, and the potentially important Club for Growth, which is expected to spend several million dollars to help promote Salmon’s record.
Style or substance? That might ultimately be the defining question of the 2022 GOP Primary in Arizona. And the answer won’t be known until August of 2022.