With only a 16 – 14 majority in the Arizona State Senate, Senate President Karen Fann and Republican leadership have no wiggle room when it comes to passing important legislation. Any single Republican defection on a bill likely kills it, as Senate Democrats often vote No in lockstep to kill Republican bills. The same problem exists in the State House, where Speaker Rusty Bowers presides over the barest 31-29 Republican majority. Recent developments suggest that passing bills on election integrity and accountability, protecting against mask mandates, and other big issues, are likely doomed before they even start.
State Senators Paul Boyer and Michelle Ugenti-Rita have taken strong positions against key election integrity efforts. State Representatives Joanne Osborne and Michelle Udall oppose expansion of school choice options that would give parents more say over the education of their children. State Senator TJ Shope has opposed efforts to prevent mask mandates, even as Arizona employers threaten the jobs of any employees who refused to get the jab.
And it isn’t just political, it has gotten very personal for many of these members. Boyer has publicly slammed election audit efforts, Ugenti-Rita killed election integrity bills in 2021 and flip-flopped against the audit in Maricopa County after she was booed off the stage by a conservative audience that was upset with her voting record. Ugenti-Rita also recently stepped down from her chairmanship of the Senate Government committee that often has jurisdiction over election bills, as well as from her seat on the Appropriations Committee, while taking very public shots at President Fann. Osborne has taken heat at GOP events for blocking school choice bills and even gubernatorial candidates like Matt Salmon and Kari Lake have called out Republicans like Osborne who are joining with Democrats to stop parents from having more say.
The one thing that may save these bills is the approach of Election Day. State Legislators like Shope or Osborne may want to kill conservative bills, but knowing that they will face the voters just a month or two after the legislative session ends may give them pause. The voters themselves will likely need to make themselves heard during the session, if priority bills are to pass through the legislature in 2022. Capitol insiders say otherwise, 2022 may feature a very short session with little to show for it.