A number of recent OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) surveys have suggested that several races up and down Arizona’s November ballot will be decided by razor-thin margins. According to OHPI, the March Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey was no exception.
OHPI found that both the Republican and Democratic parties continue to have specific advantages and disadvantages.
Republican Advantages
Republicans hold healthy leads among suburban voters, a group that was particularly alienated by the rhetoric of former President Donald Trump. The GOP is also leading among middle-income voters on all three generic ballots.
Democratic Advantages
Democrats hold a healthy advantage with “self-described moderates” and lead among Arizona’s Independents and Hispanic voters.
Voting Intentions
Survey results find that an overwhelming majority of Arizona voters are likely to vote (87%), with 65% of those voters enthusiastic to do so. This enthusiasm carries throughout each party as there is no statistical change between each. Overall, Arizonans’ likelihood to vote is high, yet, looking deeper into who is very likely to vote, there is clear disparity across party lines. Republicans are at the top with 84% saying they’re very likely to vote, Democrats are at 72%, and only 56% of Independents are very likely to vote. The drop off among Independents is not unusual in an off-year where the Presidency is not on the ballot.
As for how Grand Canyon State residents plan to vote, mail-in ballots are on the rise as a top choice for voting. As of the March AZPOP, 62% of Arizonans plan to vote entirely by mail, 12% plan to get their ballot by mail then physically turn it in before election day, 11% plan to vote in person on election day, and only 7% plan to vote in person before election day.
“As seen in our previous survey release, Arizona voters are leaning deeper into their preferences for voting by mail, and this year’s midterm elections will be no exception with 3 in 5 Arizonans planning to vote entirely by mail,” said Mike Noble, Chief of OHPI Research.
Governor: Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits, which means that Arizona voters will be picking his successor this November. The generic gubernatorial ballot remains tight with a statistical tie between Republicans (39%) and Democrats (37%).
Senate: The generic Senate ballot is also a dead heat as Sen. Mark Kelly (D) awaits his Republican rival. Republicans are currently at 39%, while Democrat Mark Kelly is at 37%. The poll did not test the GOP primary candidates and it is too early to predict who Kelly’s opponent will be.
Congress: Arizona’s congressional map was recently redrawn as part of the decennial redistricting process, which resulted in several new competitive districts. With Democrats clinging to a narrow majority in the House, it’s becoming clear that Arizona will be ground zero in the fight for the majority. Democrats and Republicans are tied at 37% apiece in the generic congressional ballot.
“The story we are left with from this data is that it’s still a level playing field for Arizona’s Governor, Senate, and Congressional races,” said Noble. “However, primary elections aren’t until August, so we will continue to keep a close eye to see who begins to climb the ladder.”
Observors and experts echo some of OHPI’s findings, while noting that the survey did not provide meaningful details for specific races. “It is interesting that Republicans and Democrats are tied at 37% on a generic congressional ballot, but these aren’t at-large seats. Republicans now have registration advantages in the Kirkpatrick and O’Halleran districts, so you won’t know anything unless you poll those districts individually.” noted one political expert.
“I think the poll is bad news for Mark Kelly to be honest.” observed a GOP campaign consultant who said he was not working for any of the GOP candidates for U.S. Senate. “His numbers mirror the generic partisan numbers which suggests he is viewed as a Democrat and nothing more. 2022 is the wrong year to be a typical Democrat who shows no independence and just votes as Democratic leadership tells him. He hasn’t given Arizona voters any reason to feel that he’s anything more than a partisan Democrat, and while that might have worked in 2018, it won’t in 2022.”