The United States is comprised of 3,143 counties. While Maricopa County is just one of those counties, we are so much more than just another county when it comes to the Presidential Election in 2024. Out of those 3,143 counties, only 4 of them hold their state’s majority of population. New Castle, Delaware, Clark County, Nevada, Honolulu County, Hawaii, and Maricopa County, Arizona. Let me break down those counties for everyone:
New Castle, Delaware: Holds about 56% of the population for the state. Voters have supported Democrat presidential candidates since 1992 and by a large margin, upwards of 40% more than Republican candidates.
Clark County, Nevada: Holds about 73% of the population for Nevada. The home to Las Vagas has supported a Democrat presidential candidate since 1992 by more than 24,000 votes in 1996 to more than 100,000 more voters in 2012.
Honolulu County Hawaii: Holds about 70% of Hawaii’s population. Voters have supported a Democratic president candidate 13 out of the 16 elections since their statehood in 1959. Most of the time by more than 100,000 more votes than Republicans. Honolulu County has been voted the 2nd most democratic county in America behind only Minneapolis County, MN.
Maricopa County, Arizona: holds about 62% of the population of Arizona. Has supported only 2 Democratic presidential candidates since 1948 (Truman and “Biden”). President Trump “lost” Maricopa County by less than 45,000 votes in 2020. Republicans hold a 34% – 29% registered voter lead over Democrats and are less than 17,000 registered voters behind Independent voters.
The only county that I see switching parties and supporting a Republican Presidential candidate in 2024 is Maricopa County.
We have all heard of “swing counties” and “swing states” heading into a federal election and 2024 is no exception. The political experts have deemed Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina as the “swing states” heading into the 2024 election. Let me break these states down as well:
Ohio: the largest county in Ohio is Franklin (Columbus) and holds about 11% of the state’s population. It also had a 64% D – 33% R (198,000 votes) split in the 2020 presidential election and hasn’t supported a Republican president since 1992. President Trump won Ohio by about 450,000 votes but lost Franklin by a large margin. Electoral College Votes is 18.
Pennsylvania: the largest county is Philadelphia, which holds about 12% of the state’s population. The county had an 81% D – 17% R (472,000 votes) split in the 2020 presidential election and hasn’t supported a Republican president since 1932. President Trump lost the state by 80,000 votes and the county by a huge margin. Electoral College Votes: 20.
Wisconsin: the largest county is Milwaukee, which holds about 15% of the state’s population. They had a 69% D – 29% R (283,000 votes) split in the 2020 presidential election and hasn’t support a Republican president since 1956. President Trump lost the state by 19,000 votes and county by a large margin. Electoral College Votes: 10.
Michigan: the largest county is Wayne (Detroit) and holds about 17 of the state’s population. They had a 68% D – 30% R (330,000 votes) split in the 2020 presidential election and hasn’t supported a Republican president since 1928. President Trump lost the state by about 150,000 and county by a large margin and defeated Clinton by less than 1% in 2016. Electoral College Votes: 16.
Arizona: see above for the population numbers. President Trump “lost” Arizona by less than 10,000 votes but has supported a Republican president in all but 3 elections since 1948 (Truman, Clinton, ‘Biden’). Electoral College Votes: 15.
Georgia: the largest county is Fulton (Atlanta) and holds about 10% of the state’s population. They had a 72% D – 26% R (243,000 votes) split in the 2020 presidential election and hasn’t supported a Republican president since 1972. President Trump lost the state by 12,000 votes and the county by a large margin. Electoral College Votes: 16
North Carolina: the largest county is Wake (Raleigh) and holds about 9.5% of the state’s population. They had a 62% D – 35% R (167,000 votes) split in the 2020 presidential election and hasn’t supported a Republican president since 2004. President Trump won the state by 74,000 votes but lost the county. Electoral College votes: 15.
I understand that there are some of these “swing states” have more electoral college votes than Arizona, but a candidate can lose their election in their largest county and still win their state in those states. Here in Arizona, we all know that when a state or federal level politician wins or loses Maricopa County, they almost always win or lose Arizona. As you can see in Ohio and North Carolina, a presidential candidate can lose the largest county but win the state. Looking at the difference in the 2020 election splits, I don’t see any of these counties switching to Republican and because of that, I believe all the experts will say that the Democrats will carry these states.
Maricopa County and Arizona has historically always been a “Red” state and by a big margin. If whoever is the Republican nominee is for President has any chance in getting elected and saving the United States, he or she MUST win Maricopa County. If you are a Republican or Independent who is reading this and hasn’t voted in a while, you should probably get out and vote for the Republican nominee for president in 2024. As they say, especially in politics and sports, the numbers don’t lie.