They say beauty is in the eye of the beholder, much the same might be said for the political polling currently being circulated by candidates and their friends and allies in the upcoming race for Congress in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District.
First out of the gate was a poll from Arizona-based Data Orbital, on behalf of Blake Masters’ Exploratory Committee, showing Masters with a double digit lead over Abe Hamadeh, who was the first candidate into the race after the surprise retirement announcement of Congresswoman Debbie Lesko. The poll showed Masters at 33% compared to Hamadeh at 18%, House Speaker Ben Toma at 7%, and State Senator Anthony Kern just under 6%.
By the time Masters announced he would run for the seat, Hamadeh was retweeting a poll from National Public Affairs claiming Hamadeh was ahead 31% to 24% for Masters, with Toma at 11%. NPA did not include Kern in their polling.
📊 2024 AZ-08 Republican Primary
Hamadeh 31%
Masters 24%
Toma 11%
—
Undecided 34%
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H2H
Hamadeh 36%
Masters 27%
.
Hamadeh 41%
Toma 12%
.
Masters 42%
Toma 15%
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Fav/Unfav
Hamadeh: 51/17 (+34)
Masters: 51/30 (+21)@NatPubAffairs | 301 LV | 10/23-24https://t.co/7DN2Gkn5C4 pic.twitter.com/YquOxwalHi— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 26, 2023
While methodology can account for some difference in the numbers, political observers caution that early polling can often reflect the best interests of specific candidates more accurately than the situation on the ground.
“How many times does Candidate A have a poll showing them beating Candidate B while Candidate B has a poll showing the opposite? This happens all the time and only one poll is right. Sometimes not even one of the polls is right.” said one GOP activist.
“All they are really measuring at this point is name ID,” said a Republican consultant not working with any of the candidates, “so it makes sense that Masters and Hamadeh would poll higher than state legislators, since they were just statewide candidates who had a lot of money spent on their behalf – especially Masters.”
“What matters isn’t who is winning right now, but who raises the money, collects the endorsements, and builds the grassroots organizations needed to convince voters they are the right person.” continued the consultant, “A poll showing you are winning likely helps with donors, while you probably give a slight organization edge to local candidates because they actual live in the district and have campaigned there before, as compared to the candidate from Scottsdale or Tucson.”