That seems a major take away from an opinion poll released June 12. The poll was commissioned by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) and conducted by the polling team of Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research.
It is not a secret that most conservative seniors are not happy with many of AARP’s liberal positions on issues and support of liberal candidates. This is so much so that in recent years a competing organization has emerged, the Association of Mature American Citizens (AMAC), aimed at providing similar benefits, without the leftist bias of the AARP.
Political leanings notwithstanding, it appears that this poll was conducted in a professional and balanced manner.
The poll was focused on citizens 50 and older, and the report consists of 19 pages of data. Here are some of the key findings.
The reason why we think that 50-year-old and older will have such a significant effect in the upcoming election is revealed by a quick look at the Arizona numbers.
- In 2020, older voters accounted for 55% of all voters
- In 2022, that number jumped to 64%
- In 2024, the senior participation share may be even higher because a full 86% of seniors indicate that they are “extremely motivated” to vote
This survey was limited to the two top races in Arizona, namely the presidential race with Trump, Biden, Kennedy, and others; and the senate race with Lake and Gallego. Nowhere in the 19-page report was Mark Lamb mentioned.
The presidential ballot portion of the survey shows two interesting facts. First, Trump’s lead is greater (8 points) with all potential candidates in the race than in a head-to-head contest with Biden (6 points).
Second, Trump does not do well with women and Latinos. This apparently has not changed much since 2020.
The senate contest appears to be a toss-up according to this poll, because Gallego’s lead of 3 points is well within the margin of error. However, looking at the details within the poll numbers, the election may not be quite that close. Two statistics point in that direction.
First, Gallego is way ahead in urban and suburban areas. Maricopa and Pima counties account for about 2/3 of Arizona’s population. Generally, whoever wins those two counties wins the state.
Second, Swing voters aged 50+ are showing a substantial preference for Gallego.
One last piece of information worth noting is what age 50+ voters consider their top 10 most important issues. Here are the results according to this poll.
| 1 | Personal Economic Issues | 54% |
| 2 | Immigration and Border Security | 41% |
| 3 | Inflation and Rising Prices | 28% |
| 4 | Threats to Democracy | 27% |
| 5 | Abortion and Reproductive Issues | 20% |
| 6 | The Economy and Jobs | 19% |
| 7 | Taxes, Government Spending, and Debt | 12% |
| 8 | Social Security | 12% |
| 9 | The Environment and Climate Change | 7% |
| 10 | Health Care | 7% |
Candidates may improve their chances of winning if they concentrate on addressing those issues that are most important to voters.