A recently-released public opinion poll by Noble Predictive Insights sheds some light on why Trump won decisively over Harris.
That win by Trump created a Red Wave that caused widespread Republican victories throughout the state. For example, Republicans held on to congressional seats, maintained their majority in the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, swept three seats in the Corporation Commission, and increased their majority in both chambers of the State Legislature.
The only significant Republican defat was at the hands of Democrat Ruben Gallego, who defeated Kari Lake by a substantial margin. This poll also provides some insight as to the reason for this blemish in an otherwise near-perfect Republican sweep.
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
The poll determined that there were three reasons why Trump did so well.
Trump had better policy ideas:
All voters 51% to 42%
Republicans 89% to 8%
Independents 49% to 40%
Trump concentrated on most Important Issues:
All voters Economy 27% Immigration 16%
Republicans Economy 31% Immigration 24%
Independent Economy 31% Immigration 17%
Harris was perceived as part of the failed Biden administration:
All voters 56% to 33%
Republicans 71% to 24%
Independents 52% to 29%
Those numbers indicate that Independents played a significant role in Trump’s victory.
SENATE RACE
There were two reasons for Lake’s defeat, according to findings from this poll.
Gallego was a skilled campaigner. He had previously won several races, both at the state legislature and congress.
Lake was an extremely weak candidate. Most voters (53%) had a negative view of her. Among those who had a negative view, the top three reasons were
Denied her 2022 loss in the governor race 51%
Did not like her personality 45%
Imitated Trump without offering new ideas 44%
One question that this poll did not cover is why such a weak candidate won the Republican primary election, twice. Perhaps a future poll will address that question.