When it comes to most human endeavors, the question of whether history matters most often elicits a positive response. We routinely use past history as a useful tool to predict future performance.
It is quite common to use resumes to choose employees to hire, job performance to determine promotions, and student records to determine admittance to higher education.
Gubernatorial elections in Arizona are no exceptions. As we look back over the last 50 years, we see that a pattern has emerged. That pattern should be a major consideration when choosing who to support in a primary election. When that pattern is ignored, it is typically because of one of two reasons, tunnel vision or lack of information.
Tunnel vision is very hard to overcome. It happens when voters find themselves in a bubble where they listen only to those who agree with them and conclude that others outside their bubble also agree with them. They tend to heed the first half of the primary election advice given by William F. Buckley, Jr., which was to vote for “the most conservative candidate”, but ignore the second half, “that can win the general election”. This tends to lead to the selection of some candidates, outstanding by our standards, that go on to lose the general election because they lack the substantial statewide appeal necessary to win.
Lack of information is a lot easier to cure. All it takes is an open mind and a willingness to learn. To that end, we have done the research and found some very interesting patterns regarding our elections for governor.
The first order of business is to be realistic and dismiss the notion that Arizona has been a deep red state. The truth is that, regarding the office of governor, Arizona has been deep purple at best. Over the last 50 years, Arizona voters have chosen 11 governors as follows:
Democrats (6): Castro, Babbitt, Bolin, Mofford, Napolitano, and Hobbs
Republicans (5): Mecham, Symington, Hull, Brewer, and Ducey.
It is hard to support the notion that Arizona has been a red state during a period when most of its governors have been Democrat, at least two of which have been certifiable rabid leftists, and the other four have not been much better.
Arizona is a bit atypical in that 4 of its 11 governors first ascended to that office by being secretaries of state when gubernatorial vacancies occurred. Bolin and Mofford never ran as governors, Hull and Brewer did.
During the 50-year period that we are examining, 13 elections for governor have been conducted. These are the results of those elections.
| YEAR | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | WINNER |
| 1974 | Russell Williams | Raul Castro | Democrat |
| 1978 | Evan Mecham | Bruce Babbitt | Democrat |
| 1982 | Leo Corbet | Bruce Babbitt | Democrat |
| 1986 | Evan Mecham | Carolyn Warner | Republican |
| 1990 | Fife Symington | Terry Goddard | Republican |
| 1994 | Fife Symington | Eddie Basha | Republican |
| 1998 | Jane Hull | Paul Johnson | Republican |
| 2002 | Matt Salmon | Janet Napolitano | Democrat |
| 2006 | Len Munsil | Janet Napolitano | Democrat |
| 2010 | Jan Brewer | Terry Goddard | Republican |
| 2014 | Doug Ducey | Fred DuVal | Republican |
| 2018 | Doug Ducey | David Garcia | Republican |
| 2022 | Kari Lake | Katie Hobbs | Democrat |
There is reason to believe that none of the five Republicans that were elected fits the mold of staunch conservative. It appears that successful gubernatorial candidates have been either Democrats or moderate Republicans.
This makes a lot of sense, since Arizona voters that have registered as Republican comprise only about 1/3 of the electorate, at least some of which consider themselves, and vote as, moderates. To win the highest statewide elective office, there has to be at least some support from voters who are not staunch conservatives.