Arizona Republicans will gather in Prescott this Saturday for their annual meeting, and extra drama is expected because the party intends to elect a new chairman in the middle of the term.
Gina Swoboda, the current chairwoman, is stepping down to run for Congress in Arizona’s First Congressional District, one of the country’s toughest battleground districts, and four candidates have emerged to fill the seat.
Pam Kirby, Bob Branch, Sergio Arellano, and Kathleen Winn are chasing votes in a race that observers say is unpredictable but important to Republican chances in 2026.
“There is no question that the state party performed a lot better in 2024 than it had in 2022 or 2020, and in what will be a difficult environment, it will need to do very well in 2026,” said one political consultant who works with several Arizona candidates, adding that the loss of Swoboda was “unfortunate, but understandable given the demands of running for Congress, and the nearly impossible nature of trying to do both at the same time.”
Each of the candidates running have long histories within the party and offer their own positives and negatives. These races often rely on coalition building and state committeemen we spoke to suggested that some candidates had advantages over others.
“Kirby, and to a certain extent Winn, are trying to be the Turning Point candidates and for voters who want Turning Point to take over the party in full, they will be attractive.” said one Southern Arizona committeeman, who also said that “You see the Liz Harris and Jake Hoffman supporters pushing hard for them, especially Kirby. But she was part of the Kelli Ward disaster so that might hurt her.” He was referring to the former state chairman who oversaw dismal results for the GOP. Kirby served as the party’s number two during that time and was lambasted for extravagant party and celebration expenses at the same time that the party was losing so many races.
“Branch seems to have a lot of ideas and plans, but he’s the most unknown of the candidates and doesn’t seem to have any particular track record when it comes to party stuff or winning races” said a Maricopa County committeeman, who thought the race would ultimately come down to Kirby or Arellano.
“Arellano is a veteran which helps, and he’s well known in Southern Arizona for election integrity stuff from his time down there. But he did run against Ward for Chairman a few years back and, while he came really close to winning, and he would have been better than she turned out to be, I’m not sure if there are some committeemen who loved Ward and hold it against him?” said another Maricopa County committeeman who says she is deciding between Arellano and Branch. “I just met Branch and he seemed impressive, like really smart, and Sergio has been on the ground working with candidates for years on things like signatures and getting out the vote, so I’m trying to decide who can do the job the best.”
Another longtime state committeeman familiar with all four campaigns said the race may ultimately come down to who is best prepared to actually run the party as an organization. “This isn’t just a messaging role, it’s a management job,” he said. “And Arellano probably has the deepest hands-on experience with the mechanics of winning campaigns.”
“Winn has a decent base in Maricopa County from her years up there, but she’s also building a base down here in Pima County. She ran for Congress twice and lost both times, but she has been building an anti-establishment identity that might help her with angry voters and the Freedom Caucus crowd that isn’t as worried about winning races as others, so if you don’t care about winning as much as you care about fighting hard, she might strike a chord.” observed a Pima County voter who has known Winn for several years.
One person who could swing the race is Swoboda herself, who is close to President Trump and who had the President’s endorsement for both her Chairman campaigns and her run for Congress. But she has yet to endorse a successor and there is a lot of chatter that she may change her mind and either remain as Chairman or resign and try to get re-elected at the same meeting. If she simply remains as Chairman, then there is no need for a fresh election and the Party would just fill the other offices it normally has up. There seems to be no precedent for resigning and running again at the same meeting.
“I can’t imagine that happening,” said a local precinct committeeman who is not a state committeeman and will not be attending the meeting, “because if she wants to be Chairman she only has to stay Chairman, so why put everyone through a needless election? Plus, she could lose that election if everyone gets mad at her for all of this, so I’d guess she’s not staying as Chairman since we’re a week away and the election is still on.”
The AZGOP’s State Committeemen will be the ones with the votes at Saturday’s meeting, which promises both drama and important consequences for the GOP’s chances in 2026.
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