Looming in the shadow of the race for President is a potentially historic night for Arizona Democrats that have spent more then five decades in the minority in the State House. The Arizona State Senate is also in jeopardy and out-of-state money has poured into the Grand Canyon State from progressive groups and donors looking to take over one or both bodies.
Democratic consultants are confident of victory, particularly in the State House, while lobbyists and consultants from the GOP side of the aisle believe a stronger than expected performance by President Trump may save both chambers, but they also believe the State House to be in the greatest jeopardy, in large part because GOP efforts to save the Legislature have largely tilted towards the Senate.
“It is like some Republicans are ready to concede the House so all of the effort and spending seems to be on the Senate side.” said one Capitol observer. “The Governor’s PAC spending seems much heavier on the Senate side than the House, and the Legislative PAC is definitely placing a higher priority on Senate campaigns, so they may already know something we don’t know.”
In fact, an analysis of the spending by the Republican Legislative Victory Fund that was established by Senate President Karen Fann and House Speaker Rusty Bowers shows that the heavy majority of the money has so far been spent on Senate races. [See accounting below]
“If you’re in the House, you’re pissed at Bowers because he’s been a no-show during the campaign cycle when his caucus has the narrowest possible margin, which means less money for House races and Fann running the show.” said one lobbyist.
Including spending up through October 27th, the Republican Legislative Victory Fund had reported spending $1,354,061, of which a larger percentage went to help Fann keep the Senate ($563,504) than Bowers keep the House ($378,310). In fact, the House received less spending than the fund’s own expenses, as its consultants and venders received ($412,247).
“For the longest time the House and Senate each had their own PAC, which was smart, because it made them each be responsible for themselves, but Bowers signed it all over to Fann and now everyone may pay the ultimate price for it.” said a donor who has given to Republican causes for a long time, but who says he was never asked for a contribution by the new Legislative Victory PAC in 2020.
The biggest beneficiary of the PAC’s spending has been JD Mesnard’s Senate race ($320k), which many believe may determine control of the State Senate if Kate Brophy McGee loses her Senate race. Paul Boyer’s race received around $107k in spending while Wendy Rogers’ race ran a distant third at approximately $81k. The only House race to top $100k in spending was the LD6 House race where the PAC targeted Independent candidate Art Babbott with $100k in negative ads, but no negative ads were reported against the Democrat in that district, Coral Evans.
“It’s nuts,” said the lobbyist, “because it’s like Bowers is basically conceding a House seat to Evans and with it his majority, but he’s hardly spending to try to capture another House seat to make up for it.” The lobbyist mentioned LD17 and LD4 as the GOP’s only real opportunities for a pickup, and the PAC reported spending just $50k in LD17 and a mere $38k in LD4.
GOP members of the House are expected to gather on Wednesday to elect leadership positions while the GOP members in the Senate are planning to wait until Thursday. Given the large number of ballots likely outstanding, it may not be clear if the GOP is electing a Speaker or a Minority Leader in the House, or a President or Minority Leader in the Senate. Bowers is facing a challenge from Rep Mark Finchem while Fann does not have any opposition at this point.
“Bowers’ only chance at winning is running against Mark Finchem” said one GOP member who wished to remain anonymous. “He’d be roadkill if Kavanagh (Rep. John Kavanagh) or Toma (Rep. Ben Toma) was running for Speaker instead of Majority Leader.”
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