The IRC (Independent Redistricting Commission) did everything they could during the redistricting process to get as many democrats elected as possible in Arizona. Last week, their efforts paid off far more than the heavy spending by Independent Expenditure Committees.
According to the Yellow Sheet, “Despite hundreds of thousands of dollars in outside spending, it appears that the results of last week’s contested Senate races depended almost entirely on which party had the competitive advantage.” The Yellow Sheet noted that the results supported Senator Frank Antenori’s assertion that his defeat was a result of redistricting and the edge given to Democrats in that district.
“In fact, a cursory look at the IRC’s competitive index 8, derived from partisan performance in previous elections, and the latest results of seven highly competitive Senate races showed the two sets of figures tracking very closely,” the Yellow Sheet reported.
The races “hewed very closely to the estimated partisan advantage.” Out of the seven races in toss-up districts, “four Senate candidates who lost their races underperformed by no more than 2 percentage points when compared to the IRC index: Chabin, Tyler Mott LD9, Antenori in LD10, and Janie Hydrick LD18,” according to the Yellow Sheet.
That is not to say that IE money did not help. In Antenori versus David Bradley, IEs spent $5.77 for every Bradley vote, while IEs spent $0.02 for every Antenori vote.
In the 11 districts that were highly competitive, meaning they were not skewed in favor of one party or another, “the side that spent less money per vote won the day,” noted the Yellow Sheet.
Related articles: