2014 was the third or sixth or 8000th warmest year

The propaganda press has been speculating on whether or not 2014 would be the warmest year ever. 2014 was certainly the warmest year in the last two years. The data are now in so we no longer have to speculate.

Some temperature data is based on surface stations, but those data are subject to many confounded problems that tend toward a warming bias, i.e., the Urban Heat Island effect. See my Wryheat post, The State of our Surface Temperature Records which list some problems with our temperature records.

There are also two satellite systems which measure a calculated temperature for the lower troposphere. These are regarded as a more accurate measure of global temperature.

In 2014, the Remote Sensing System (RSS) of satellites put 2014 as tied for sixth warmest since 1979. See graphs and commentary by Paul Homewood here. He writes, “RSS satellite data is now published for December, and confirms that global atmospheric temperatures for 2014 are nowhere near the record being touted by NOAA and NASA.”

The other satellites system is run by the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH). They put 2014 as “the third warmest year in the 36-year global satellite temperature record, but by such a small margin (0.01 C) as to be statistically similar to other recent years, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville 2014 was warm, but not special. The 0.01 C difference between 2014 and 2005, or the 0.02 difference with 2013 are not statistically different from zero. That might not be a very satisfying conclusion, but it is at least accurate.”

Dr. Roy Spencer, of UAH, explains why the satellite systems may come up with different numbers here. The basic reason is that “there is not a single satellite which has been operating continuously, in a stable orbit, measuring a constant layer of the atmosphere, at the same local time every day, with no instrumental calibration drifts.”

Over at Real Science, Steven Goddard proclaims “2014 Was The Least Hot Year On Record In The US” because 2014 “recorded the smallest percent of stations to reach 90 degrees in US history. Only 84% of US HCN stations reached 90 degrees. This was the first year when more than 15% of stations failed to reach 90 degrees any time during the year.”

A few days ago, Tony Davis of the Arizona Daily Star got into the propaganda business with this article “Tucson’s record warmth ‘consistent’ with climate-change forecast.” The term “consistent with” is, in my opinion, a weasel word that implies much but fails to prove anything. Late in the article Davis admits that the high temperature average for 2014 was due mainly to hotter minimum temperatures at night: “But hotter nights were the bigger drivers of 2014’s record warmth.” This is a signature of the Urban Heat Island Effect. Our asphalt and concrete is warmed during the day and radiate heat at night. (For more on UHI see Urban heat island effect on temperatures, a tale of two cities)

Finally, let’s put things in a longer perspective and look at global temperatures for the past 10,000 years. Given that perspective, it looks like 2014 was about the 8000th warmest year, give or take 1,000 years.

Cuffey&Clow

6 Comments on "2014 was the third or sixth or 8000th warmest year"

  1. joohn dough | January 8, 2015 at 7:20 am |

    The ENVILEmental people will never cease to use their terror tactics in pushing their BS about global warming as it makes them millions in doing so, and it gives them the feeling of superiority over others by controlling other people’s lives and actions in every day living, kind of like the feeling Hitler probably got when exercising his power over the people of Germany and Europe.

  2. that superior feeling seems to be quite a driver – oh you don’t know and how dare you scoff at ‘us’ and ‘me’ for we know better than you – and everybody knows that…

  3. Climate change is all about control and power for a few that = $$$. Temperature History. Today temperature can be measured within 0.0001 C. The last 200 years bulb thermometers have been evolving using measurement scales of various types. Most of the world temperature history is using tree rings, wide = warm? Wet? and narrow = cold? Dry?

  4. http://www.dump.com/mathproblem/

    This is also something indicative of the common core approach

  5. The Pope’s upcoming encyclical will settle it all.

  6. The PAPA encyclical – well set the world on a new course – the uni course – one world is uni-religion ; uni government – uni-social ; uni control – the church, that church will play a huge role, as it has since the day the Berlin wall as dropped – it’s the new world order – it is the times in which we live

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