Opinion By Mike Zinkin
The Town Manager’s Recommended Budget (TMRB) is out and the golf projections for July, August, September, and October are questionable. Based on the inaccuracy of last year’s golf forecast, one needs to look carefully at the upcoming fiscal year’s forecast.
The Town announced that from May 2, 2016 – Oct. 3, 2016 they would be closing two of the golf courses, allowing for only 18 holes of golf available for play. I asked the Town Manager, Greg Caton, if he was going to revise the golf projections in his budget due to the closures. His response was, “The Town Manager’s Recommended Budget took into account the summer course plan that was outlined in the Council Report issued on 4/25.”
The first item of concern is that the TMRB was given to Council the first week in April. This document is 275 pages and had to go to the printer sometime in March. This means that Mr. Caton knew of the plan to close the courses long before he decided to communicate it to the Council on 4/25. Why did he keep the Council in the dark for so long?
This year we have some recent history to fall back on, whereas last year we did not have this advantage. Last year we had only the forecast with nothing to compare it to, since the Hilton numbers were “proprietary” and not available for comparison. History shows how inaccurate the forecast turned out to be. The original forecast showed losses of $1.5 million in the first year, however we are now forecasted to lose $2.29 million.
In testimony in front of Council, the Troon Vice-President acknowledged that the number of member rounds was not important, as the members provide a constant source of revenue regardless of the number of rounds they play. The only reason they track the number of rounds played by the members is to measure the activity of the membership.
What is important to track is the number of rounds provided by “outside play.” Outside play is defined as: Daily Fee, Tournament, Complimentary, and the 9 hole course. When one looks that the lowered TMRB forecasts for July, August, and September, it appears that we learned something from last year’s mistakes.
Here is how the forecast compares to our known 2015 results:
| July 2015 | August 2015 | September 2015 |
| 1486 rounds Forecast for July 2016 – 1464 (22 less rounds) | 1666 Forecast for August 2016 – 1352 (314 less rounds) | 2554 Forecast for September 2016 – 2145 (409 less rounds) |
This amounts to 745 less rounds forecasted in 2016, or about 8 rounds less per day (745 divided by 90 days)
What is important to remember is that in 2015 there were 45 holes of golf available for play. In 2016 there will be only 18 holes available. In 2015 the members could play on one course, while outside play could play on the other. This option will not be available in 2016.
Compounding the issue is the fact that the members will get priority for tee times. The first available time for outside play will be around 10:00 AM. If you are a summer golfer you know that starting your round at 10:00 AM places you in the heat of the mid-day sun. This is why golfers desire to start play at 6:00 and be off the course by 10:30. This luxury will not be available at the Town’s courses, but there are at least 3 public courses within 5 miles that will offer early tee times.
There is good reason to, once again, question the veracity of the TMRB forecast. Remember, in FY 15/16 the TMRB was short by $800,000. Can the Town afford another $800,000 debacle?
The Mayor and Vice-Mayor want us to stop getting into the weeds and “get on board.” I cannot get on board” knowing the history of poor forecasting. I will not condone this drain on Oro Valley’s economy.