Do Republicans want to lose McSally’s borrowed Senate seat?

McSally has a "lot of ground to make up with important groups if she hopes to maintain her seat.”

hiremath mcsally grijalva, kirkpatrick
Satish Hiremath, TEP CEO David Hutchens, Sen. Martha McSally, Farhad Moghimi (Pima Association of Governments/Regional Transportation Authority), Rep. Raul Grijalva, U.S. Forest Service employee, and Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick pose for a group picture at Sabino Canyon on Saturday. [Photo courtesy Sen. Martha McSally]

PHOENIX  – She lost to Kyrsten Sinema and with less than one year from Election Day, Sen. Martha McSally is gaining ground but still in a dead heat with Arizona Senate challenger Mark Kelly. According to a poll released Wednesday, while McSally still trails the former astronaut, she is closing the gap compared to last quarter’s Arizona Public Opinion poll.

“For the first time since Mark Kelly entered the Senate race, McSally has gained ground against her likely opponent,” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights in a press release. “But the sitting senator still has a lot of ground to make up with important groups if she hopes to maintain her seat.”

YIKES! Do the Republicans want to lose this seat?

OH Predictive Insights Methodology:  This phone poll was conducted via cell and landline. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between December 3rd, 2019 and December 4th, 2019, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 628 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.91%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

According to Noble:

Republican candidates across the state have counted on the support of older voters for years, but McSally is lagging behind in that constituency, only having the support of 43 percent of likely voters older than 55 compared to Kelly’s 47 percent.

Kelly is dominating among older women — leading McSally by almost 20 points, but that gap is nearly the mirror image of what is happening with older men. McSally is beating Kelly 51-39 with that group.

This split is also reflected in voters’ opinions of the candidates themselves. Women aged 55 and older who have a favorable view of Mark Kelly outnumber those who hold unfavorable opinions of the former astronaut by a nearly 2:1 margin. However, McSally’s favorability among that bloc is 18 points underwater.  The pattern is reversed among older men. Men 55 and older have a positive 20 point net favorable opinion of McSally and only a negative 2 point net favorable opinion of Kelly.

Governor Ducey had to appoint her to the Senate seat she currently occupies. Republicans are stuck with his bad choice. Maybe that is why he put his $8 million plus mansion up for sale. He can’t be too popular around these parts these days.

15 Comments

  1. Search “daniel mccarthy arizona”. If Arizona becomes a blue 2 senator state, it might as well be renamed Arifornia.

  2. I watched a debate between McSally and Cinema the last election. Sinema was poised, calm and very effective. McNally spent basically the whole time frantically trying to debut Sinema, but really just tried to hang on. It was a slaughter. Sinema is a natural politician. McNally is not. The GOP had better start building some bench strength because the people they are running aren’t cutting it.

  3. I don’t like either candidate but will hold my nose and vote for Kelly in hopes that the Senate will start functioning again. So much House-passed legislation — good, bad and indifferent — has never made it to the Senate floor — partisan politics being put ahead of the national interest. MASA! Make America Sane Again!

    • No offense Albert but what makes you think Kelly will do anything different to make the Senate “start functioning again.”? He’s just another Liberal Democrat riding Gabby’s coattails!

      • My thinking is that if we break Gatekeeper McConnell’s stranglehold on what gets voted on, then senators will — hopefully — begin to start functioning on behalf of their constituents instead of their rigid party lines. Might be wishful thinking, but something has to change, in Congress and in the White House.

        • still waiting for you to tell us what the democraps have done in the last few years other than grandstanding before cameras!

      • By functioning, AL means bring the fascist actions of house dems to the Senate so they can impeach, again, and again, and again.

        Jerry Nadler said it best for democrats – “We can’t trust an election”.

    • go back a few years and let us know what the democraps did when they had BOTH house of congress! All they did was set up for self. Saw a headline the other day by the guy running the impeachment and it said that trump had to go because he is trying to dump us! Tells you a lot does it not. Self, party over country, just like here in pima co.

    • Albert have you taken a ride on the Kelly balloon? It only cost Pima County how many million dollars with “zero riders and one explosion to date” oh yes one cooked chicken to a ride… is this your idea of American Sanity?

  4. Nothing exciting about McSally… she’s a dud. Nothing about her personality attracts attention. Yawn. Boring. As a result, McSally will lose the Senate seat and AZ will be a two-blue senator state. Pity. The Republicans have done this to themselves.

    • no one to blame but the last place from the naval academy – McCain and of course the swamplicans who want status quo and of course “globalism”

  5. Of course Az does not want to lose a “R” Seat – does Mc Sally want to do anything! Mark Kelly is a joke! Never my vote! The “Balloon Trick” on Pima County is just one high view of his self and what would come with him in power… NO WAY – as far as I’m concerned he should volunteer for the first Mars mission… asta lugo!

    • She is a better bet than Kelly and she’s way better than McCain, he got way too big for his britches as do most lifers in congress. He sold us out and I don’t believe Martha will. She’s smart and she loves America and I think she will do very well for AMERICA.

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