Do Republicans want to lose McSally’s borrowed Senate seat?

McSally has a "lot of ground to make up with important groups if she hopes to maintain her seat.”

hiremath mcsally grijalva, kirkpatrick
Satish Hiremath, TEP CEO David Hutchens, Sen. Martha McSally, Farhad Moghimi (Pima Association of Governments/Regional Transportation Authority), Rep. Raul Grijalva, U.S. Forest Service employee, and Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick pose for a group picture at Sabino Canyon on Saturday. [Photo courtesy Sen. Martha McSally]

PHOENIX  – She lost to Kyrsten Sinema and with less than one year from Election Day, Sen. Martha McSally is gaining ground but still in a dead heat with Arizona Senate challenger Mark Kelly. According to a poll released Wednesday, while McSally still trails the former astronaut, she is closing the gap compared to last quarter’s Arizona Public Opinion poll.

“For the first time since Mark Kelly entered the Senate race, McSally has gained ground against her likely opponent,” said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights in a press release. “But the sitting senator still has a lot of ground to make up with important groups if she hopes to maintain her seat.”

YIKES! Do the Republicans want to lose this seat?

OH Predictive Insights Methodology:  This phone poll was conducted via cell and landline. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between December 3rd, 2019 and December 4th, 2019, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 628 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.91%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

According to Noble:

Republican candidates across the state have counted on the support of older voters for years, but McSally is lagging behind in that constituency, only having the support of 43 percent of likely voters older than 55 compared to Kelly’s 47 percent.

Kelly is dominating among older women — leading McSally by almost 20 points, but that gap is nearly the mirror image of what is happening with older men. McSally is beating Kelly 51-39 with that group.

This split is also reflected in voters’ opinions of the candidates themselves. Women aged 55 and older who have a favorable view of Mark Kelly outnumber those who hold unfavorable opinions of the former astronaut by a nearly 2:1 margin. However, McSally’s favorability among that bloc is 18 points underwater.  The pattern is reversed among older men. Men 55 and older have a positive 20 point net favorable opinion of McSally and only a negative 2 point net favorable opinion of Kelly.

Governor Ducey had to appoint her to the Senate seat she currently occupies. Republicans are stuck with his bad choice. Maybe that is why he put his $8 million plus mansion up for sale. He can’t be too popular around these parts these days.