Arizona’s Independent Redistricting Commission has approved final Congressional and Legislative maps that, pending the outcome of inevitable lawsuits, will last Arizona for the next 10 years. The final phase of the map-making process was completed after nine days of deliberation. Congressional District Map 13.9 was approved by a vote of 5-0 and Legislative District Map 16.1 was approved by a vote of 3-2.
Pursuant to Article IV, part 2, §§ 1(14)–(17) of the Arizona Constitution, the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) is responsible for drawing final Legislative and Congressional electoral maps for the State of Arizona and providing certification to the Arizona Secretary of State. Arizona’s county election administrators have traditionally been invited, near the end of the process but before final certification, to suggest minor, mostly technical changes intended solely to facilitate election administration in the counties. Once the IRC does vote, each county will have seven calendar days to provide to the IRC any suggestions for minor accommodations for election administration purposes.
“From day one this has always been a very organic process,” stated Neuberg. “Everyone involved in the process recognizes that it is also a highly partisan affair, with two Republican and two Democratic commissioners pushing for changes that predictably benefit their party, and the Chairwoman acting as referee and tie-breaking vote.”
The first time the Commission was in charge of the maps the outcome favored Republicans, as expected, given Republican control of the state’s executive branch and its involvement in the selection of the fifth commissioner. After the 2010 census, the maps were heavily skewed in favor of the Democrats as a result of the Napolitano administrations role. Accordingly, expectations were that Doug Ducey’s presence on the 9th floor would give the GOP an advantage in 2021, but most observers feel like Arizona Democrats did very well this time around.
“There are more Republicans than Democrats in Arizona but if the wind blows a bit blue, Democrats could find themselves with a 5-4 advantage on the Congressional map,” said one observer, who said that what was expected to be a 6-3 advantage for Republicans was only a possibility now in a strong red wave year. “This is a solid 4-3 map for the GOP with two swing seats at best.”
Another politico who was following the legislative map said that “It is a 13-12 map, maybe a 14-12 map, in favor of the GOP, with 4 or 5 swing seats that would give Democrats a real chance at taking over the legislature every time a blue wave election occurred. And that is based on today’s population, so add in several more years of Californians moving into Arizona and Democrats should feel pretty darn good about the maps they ended up with.”
The final maps can be viewed on the link: https://redistricting-irc-az.hub.arcgis.com/pages/finaldraft-maps
According to a press release from the Commission, “The five volunteer members of the Commission spent the last seven months listening to in-person public comments from over 1700 in person and online comments recorded. There were also thousands emailed and mailed comments, about 17,000 comments submitted through the website portal and maps submitted by online and paper submissions. The Commission held 68 statewide sessions over the past 5 months inviting Arizona residents to provide input into the redrawing of the maps. These meetings were in all 15 counties from remote locations to large cities, municipalities, tribal communities attended by over 4,000 residents, city mayors, council members, tribal government officials, Latino community members and various organizations.”