Contrary to what many Republicans had hoped, it does not appear that the potential entry of Senator Kyrsten Sinema into the U.S. Senate race as a third-party candidate guarantees a GOP victory.
In fact, recent public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights shows “some intriguing dynamics that challenge conventional political wisdom.” Their data suggests that Sinema’s entry into the race would help Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego more than it would help Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb or Republican Kari Lake.
Lake, who was the Republican Party’s nominee for Arizona governor in 2022, is expected to throw her hat into the U.S. Senate race ring in September. Sources say that Sinema is expected to announce her intentions to run after Lake’s announcement.
According to the survey, 57 percent of Arizona voters were at least somewhat willing to support Senator Sinema’s re-election bid, while 43 percent expressed not being very or not at all willing to back her candidacy.
Democrats appeared to be less enthusiastic about supporting Sinema compared to Republicans, with 56 percent of Democrats expressing reluctance versus 43 percent of Republicans. Sinema turned off older (73 percent not very/not at all willing) and female (61 percent not very/not at all) Democrats in particular. Independents fell in between with 32 percent expressing hesitation to support Sinema.
“While Sinema faces challenges within her former party, we shouldn’t underestimate her ability to appeal to a broader base,” said Mike Noble, NPI Founder & Chief of Research. “She has managed to attract support from Republicans and Independents in the past, which could play a role in the final outcome.”
In head-to-head matchups, Gallego led by a 10-point margin when pitted against potential Republican candidate Kari Lake (45 percent to 35 percent).
Gallego’s support came from key voting blocs, including:
- Hispanic/Latinos: Gallego +22
- Independents: Gallego +14
- Women: Gallego +12
- Maricopa: Gallego +12
In a hypothetical three-way race that included Sinema, Gallego retained a significant advantage. Sinema’s entry caused an 11-point drop in Gallego’s support and a 9-point drop for Lake, statistically tying Sinema and Lake with support from one-quarter of voters. In this scenario, Sinema performed better among Independents, gaining 38 percent of their support compared to Gallego’s 24 percent and Lake’s 16 percent.
“Congressman Gallego’s strength in head-to-head matchups shows his appeal across various demographic groups, making him a formidable candidate in this race,” said Noble. “However, Senator Sinema’s entry could create a more complex electoral landscape, given her ability to draw support from Independents.”
Republicans looking for a more viable alternative to Lake got mixed news. 2022 Senate nominee Blake Masters performs slightly better than Lake did. Against Masters, who lost badly to Senator Mark Kelly last year, Gallego maintained a solid 8-point advantage (44 percent to 36 percent). A three-way race with Sinema brought a 12-point drop for both candidates, cutting Gallego’s leading margin to 4 points with Sinema in second at 28 percent and Masters falling to 24 percent support.
The only major declared Republican running for the Senate, Sheriff Mark Lamb, does the best of the Republicans, in spite of having the lowest name ID. In a matchup against Lamb, Congressman Gallego led by only 4 points (40 percent to 36 percent), just outside the poll’s 3.1% margin of error. However, when Sinema joined the race, the Senator’s 24 percent dropped Gallego’s support by 7 points and Lamb’s by 11 points, putting her at a statistical tie with Lamb.
All three Republicans tested earned similar support in a hypothetical head-to-head with Gallego, with Lamb performing best against the Democrat at only 4 points behind compared to Masters’ 8-point lag and Lake’s 10-point lag. Republicans looking for a silver lining will find one in Lamb’s larger undecided numbers. According to a local consultant who is not working with any of the three Republicans, Lamb is not only the most competitive, but he has a higher ceiling because more voters do not yet know enough about him, compared to the high-visibility that Masters enjoys after his expensive 2022 race, and the omnipresent Lake, who has rarely been out of the news since losing the race for Governor.
With the 2024 Arizona Senate race still in its early stages, the poll results indicate that conventional wisdom may not accurately predict the final outcome. Both Senator Sinema and Congressman Gallego have the potential to impact the race significantly.
According to Noble, “a path to victory for Senator Sinema as a third-party candidate will require securing the right shares of each party. As she faces challenges in retaining the support of key Democratic constituencies, Sinema will need to capture about 55 percent of Independents, 35 percent of Republicans, and 20 percent of Democrats in a re-election bid.
In all the three-way matchups tested, Sinema currently maintains support from roughly 4 in 10 Independents, one-quarter of Republicans, and 13 percent of Democrats.
“Sinema’s third-party run does not guarantee a GOP victory in Arizona’s Senate race, and what is even more interesting is that there appears to be a path to victory for Sinema in a 3-way showdown. Buckle up and grab your popcorn because the Senate contest in Arizona is going to be one to watch,” concluded Noble.