None of the major candidates for President have established any campaign infrastructure in Arizona yet, but Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is at least the first major Republican candidate to file to be on Arizona’s ballot. Other candidates including Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy are all expected to follow soon. They have until December 11th to file, and candidates are eligible to file in an expedited fashion once they have qualified for the ballot in at least two other states.
“As I recall, twenty-four states will have voted before Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Kansas have their primaries on March 19th,” said Arizona GOP consultant Constantin Querard, who has spent much of 2023 helping to organize Arizona for a potential DeSantis campaign, “so for most of the candidates their race will already be over. Which is why you see everyone spending their time and money on the earlier states.”
Querard noted that while Arizona’s official primary date is March 19th, ballots will go out nearly a month before that, which means Arizona voters will actually be voting before South Carolina goes to the polls on February 24th.
The 2024 campaign has been very quiet in Arizona, with no announced staff hires from any of the top-tier candidates, and limited efforts at organizing endorsements or high-profile supporters. Querard said that DeSantis had attracted a large list of early endorsers earlier this spring but conceded that Arizona has been largely ignored by the campaigns and candidates.
That will all change when the primary season ends, as Arizona is expected to be one of the four most contested states in the general election. Arizona is considered a must-win state under most scenarios for the Republican nominee, but GOP weakness at the top of the ticket over the last few cycles has Democrats feeling optimistic.
“No one likes feeling ignored,” said Querard, “but by next fall, when Arizonans are besieged by non-stop political ads, they may look fondly on how quiet things were during the primary.”