A glimmer of hope remains for the reigning Big 12 champions. It’s not much, but it is a path for Arizona State to repeat as winners of the conference.
For the Sun Devils to make it back to Arlington and even win the conference crown, the rest of the Big 12 would have to cooperate. ASU did receive some positive news Tuesday night with respect coming from the most talked-about group of 12 people in the sport.
The latest College Football Playoff rankings placed the Sun Devils at No. 25, the program’s first time appearing in the poll this season.
Both of Arizona State’s conference losses are to teams (Utah and Houston) ranked above it, with Houston just two spots ahead. The selection committee has leaned on head-to-head matchups as a tiebreaker for teams in similar tiers of the rankings.
As the fifth and lowest-ranking Big 12 team in the poll, ASU’s upset win over No. 5 Texas Tech and its competitive schedule earned praise from the selection committee.
“The committee has a lot of respect for Arizona State,” College Football Playoff chair Hunter Yurachek said. “They’ve had a lot of injuries this year and continue to play through those. They’re the one team that’s beaten Texas Tech, who’s ranked No. 5, a team that is highly regarded by this committee.
“They also have a win at Iowa State, and then they’ve got losses to a Houston team that is now ranked 23rd, Utah that’s (ranked) No. 12, and a good Mississippi State team that is 5-6, but a team that’s played very well this year against their SEC schedule.”
Yurachek, the athletic director at Arkansas, is the new face of the committee after previous chair Mack Rhoades stepped down from the position recently for “personal reasons” amid unspecified allegations under investigation at Baylor, where he is the athletic director.
Arizona State still has a slim chance to make it back to the Big 12 title game, and its entrance into the rankings not only boosts the resumes of teams such as Texas Tech and Utah, which dominated the Sun Devils in October, but it also provides room for the Sun Devils to rise quickly if they win out.
ASU travels to Colorado this week and hosts red-hot Arizona, which just upset previously 25th-ranked Cincinnati on the road, the following Friday night.
ASU coach Kenny Dillingham has been cautiously optimistic about the idea of star wideout Jordyn Tyson returning to action this week after missing the previous three games with a hamstring injury. Tyson started running routes at half speed at practice Tuesday, so the Sun Devils would need to ramp him up quickly if he were to play Saturday.
Tuesday wasn’t a perfect day for the Sun Devils, as news broke early in the morning courtesy of On3’s Pete Nakos and Steve Wiltfong that quarterback Sam Leavitt, who is out for the rest of the season following foot surgery, is “doubtful” to return to the program next fall and is being shopped to other programs “at a high level.”
If true, that’s obviously not ideal, and a clear distraction for a team and coaching staff that has rallied around strong performances from backup Jeff Sims. The sixth-year senior broke the program’s quarterback rushing record with 228 rushing yards against Iowa State, and tossed three first-half touchdown passes in a tight win over West Virginia last Saturday.
“Some people find ways to win, some people find ways to lose,” Dillingham said after Saturday’s game. “Some people are quiet and they’re successful, versus guys who are loud and successful. Some people are alphas, some people aren’t. There are so many ways to be successful in football and in life.
“Can you get it done or not? And our guys get it done.”
So, what needs to happen for Arizona State to make it back to Dallas?
First, the standings and tiebreakers are important. If there is a tie between two teams, the head-to-head record takes precedence. If the teams did not play each other, the team with the highest winning percentage against opponents on both schedules would advance.
If three or more teams are tied, which would likely need to happen for ASU to advance, things get tricky. Head-to-head record again comes first. However, if the three tied teams did not all play each other, but one team beat the other two, that team advances.
Makes sense? Of course not. Again, nothing is ever straightforward in this sport.
Multiple scenarios exist for ASU to advance. The most likely is the following:
Texas Tech defeats West Virginia
BYU loses at Cincinnati and defeats UCF
Cincinnati loses at TCU to end the season
In this scenario, the Sun Devils would be involved in a four-way tie with BYU, Utah and Houston and win the tiebreaker.
Yes, despite bad losses to Utah and Houston, the Sun Devils would still advance over them.
ASU would own the tiebreaker based on its record against common conference opponents. Texas Tech, West Virginia and Colorado appear on all four schedules. In this scenario, where the Sun Devils win out, they are only the undefeated team against that trio.
The victory against the Red Raiders continues to pay dividends for the Sun Devils.
BYU, which ranked 11th this week, is being anchored by a blowout 29-7 loss to Texas Tech. For the selection committee, that’s a big deal.
“They were dominated on both sides of the ball in that game against Texas Tech,” Yurachek said. “Then you look at their wins. They have a win over Utah, who’s ranked (12th), but then their other wins, what we would consider quality wins, are against an unranked Iowa State team, Arizona and East Carolina.”
No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 10 Alabama, both with two losses, are just ranked in front of the Cougars, which could prevent multiple teams from making the College Football Playoff bracket if BYU were to lose in the conference championship game to the Red Raiders.
‘I think it’s just the number of quality wins that are with those two-loss teams ahead of them and how they looked in that game two weeks ago against Texas Tech,” Yurachek said, defending the placement of the Irish and Crimson Tide in front of the second-place Big 12 team.
Barring a stunning upset against West Virginia coming off a bye, Texas Tech is a perceived lock to make it to the playoff, regardless of a loss in the conference title game.
That means teams such as BYU and Utah, which could be in danger of being left out with a loss in the conference championship, need help for the conference to earn multiple bids.
Utah has losses to both Texas Tech and BYU, but otherwise has dominated its Big 12 schedule, which is why the committee has the Utes within striking distance of a playoff spot, even without a marquee victory, like the one No. 13 Miami has over Notre Dame.
“Utah right now, they are second in the country in their margin of victory in each of their games,” Yurachek said. “They have played really good football moving forward. Obviously, there’s No. 12 versus No. 13, that one spot apart, but I think the differentiator is the losses that Utah has versus the losses that Miami has.”
In simple terms, despite losing the big games on the schedule, Utah is being rewarded for blowing out the inferior teams, while Miami is being punished for losing to unranked SMU and Louisville, while claiming a win over the Irish.
There are lots of moving parts. But, Big 12 commissioner Brett York promised multiple playoff teams for the conference in July at Big 12 Media Days, claiming to be “the deepest football conference in America.”
“I fully expect the Big 12 to earn multiple college football playoff bids this year,” Yormark said in July, “and to show, once again, that we can compete with anyone.”
Pandemonium could ensue in the form of Auburn knocking off Alabama in the Iron Bowl during rivalry week, benefiting the Big 12. That’s a game both BYU and Utah fans will want to watch closely, should both programs win their final two games.
“I am thrilled to see the Big 12 Conference getting the respect it deserves,” Yorkmark said in a statement following the rankings reveal. “I said at Big 12 Football Media Days in July that we would earn it on the field, and we continue to do that.”
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