When it comes to most human endeavors, the question of whether history matters most often elicits a positive response. We routinely use past history as a useful tool to predict future performance.
It is quite common to use resumes to choose employees to hire, job performance to determine promotions, and student records to determine admittance to higher education.
Gubernatorial elections in Arizona are no exceptions. As we look back over the last 50 years, we see that a pattern has emerged. That pattern should be a major consideration when choosing who to support in a primary election. When that pattern is ignored, it is typically because of one of two reasons, tunnel vision or lack of information.
Tunnel vision is very hard to overcome. It happens when voters find themselves in a bubble where they listen only to those who agree with them and conclude that others outside their bubble also agree with them. They tend to heed the first half of the primary election advice given by William F. Buckley, Jr., which was to vote for “the most conservative candidate”, but ignore the second half, “that can win the general election”. This tends to lead to the selection of some candidates, outstanding by our standards, that go on to lose the general election because they lack the substantial statewide appeal necessary to win.
Lack of information is a lot easier to cure. All it takes is an open mind and a willingness to learn. To that end, we have done the research and found some very interesting patterns regarding our elections for governor.
The first order of business is to be realistic and dismiss the notion that Arizona has been a deep red state. The truth is that, regarding the office of governor, Arizona has been deep purple at best. Over the last 50 years, Arizona voters have chosen 11 governors as follows:
Democrats (6): Castro, Babbitt, Bolin, Mofford, Napolitano, and Hobbs
Republicans (5): Mecham, Symington, Hull, Brewer, and Ducey.
It is hard to support the notion that Arizona has been a red state during a period when most of its governors have been Democrat, at least two of which have been certifiable rabid leftists, and the other four have not been much better.
Arizona is a bit atypical in that 4 of its 11 governors first ascended to that office by being secretaries of state when gubernatorial vacancies occurred. Bolin and Mofford never ran as governors, Hull and Brewer did.
During the 50-year period that we are examining, 13 elections for governor have been conducted. These are the results of those elections.
| YEAR | REPUBLICAN | DEMOCRAT | WINNER |
| 1974 | Russell Williams | Raul Castro | Democrat |
| 1978 | Evan Mecham | Bruce Babbitt | Democrat |
| 1982 | Leo Corbet | Bruce Babbitt | Democrat |
| 1986 | Evan Mecham | Carolyn Warner | Republican |
| 1990 | Fife Symington | Terry Goddard | Republican |
| 1994 | Fife Symington | Eddie Basha | Republican |
| 1998 | Jane Hull | Paul Johnson | Republican |
| 2002 | Matt Salmon | Janet Napolitano | Democrat |
| 2006 | Len Munsil | Janet Napolitano | Democrat |
| 2010 | Jan Brewer | Terry Goddard | Republican |
| 2014 | Doug Ducey | Fred DuVal | Republican |
| 2018 | Doug Ducey | David Garcia | Republican |
| 2022 | Kari Lake | Katie Hobbs | Democrat |
There is reason to believe that none of the five Republicans that were elected fits the mold of staunch conservative. It appears that successful gubernatorial candidates have been either Democrats or moderate Republicans.
This makes a lot of sense, since Arizona voters that have registered as Republican comprise only about 1/3 of the electorate, at least some of which consider themselves, and vote as, moderates. To win the highest statewide elective office, there has to be at least some support from voters who are not staunch conservatives.
History always matters.
“Hobbs was crooked election”
Yes, I believe it was. There are lots of indicators that it was. But nobody has really been able to prove that it was crooked. It’s better to base our decisions on who to vote for on facts rather than conjecture.
Another factor is also the statewide race for US Senator; itself a VERY TELLING coincident indicator. Alongside all these is the longterm pulse of national mood, a.k.a. the political zeitgeist, which IMHO, has finally topped-out for the ever-conniving Dimshevik conspiracy, i.e. the end of our current ‘Piscean Era’, going back to 1998. Election science & methodology, where practicioners are always seeking the newest, latest/greatest tactics, etc. vis-a-vis tech, polling, media, etc. …these consultants get buried in the weeds, dazzled by the bright shiny objects & their vendors. Play the new zeitgeist; it will be the dominant wave for the 50+ yrs.
The 2022 Election was stolen from Kari Lake.
That should be factored into this analysis.
The only real republican conservative was Lake and the McCain wing (you know the RINO’s of the party) kicked her to the curb to elect a democrat. When are you idiots going to figure out that Little Johnnie was poison for AZ….. and the true conservatives. He has a bunch of people fooled.
In the last 35 years Arizona has chosen an R governor twice as often as a D, that’s another way of saying it from your own chart. The ancient history of the 70s doesn’t matter. Also Hobbs was crooked election so really it’s in AZ Rs have chosen R over D 3 times as much.
Recency matters more, smoke more copium
All the municipalities of Arizona are very deep blue. In fact, more Communist than Socialist. In Tucson/Pima County because of the city charter, it can never be anything other than democrat with deteriorating quality of life. Crumbling roads, horrible schools, very few American children being born, ever growing homeless, violent crime, streets run by druggies run by the Cartels, institutional hate for Christians, Jews and Whites. A liberal’s utopia.
Especially if you have children, there is an option. This great country of ours has so many welcoming places where you, your children and grandchildren can thrive. Invest in your family, in prosperity, in another state.