As a surprise to no one, the inflation rate numbers released on April 10 by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed a March total inflation rate of 3.3%. That is a jump of 35% over the previous month’s rate of 2.4%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also tracks a second set of inflation numbers, namely the core inflation. When computing core inflation, food and energy numbers are excluded. The March core inflation number was 2.6%, which was very close to the February number of 2.5%.
Excluding the more volatile food and energy numbers helps agencies like the Federal Reserve make long term fiscal and monetary decisions, but have no relevance to consumers as they struggle to afford necessary goods and services.
The following table shows what has been happening with inflation over the last six months:
| MONTH | TOTAL INFLATION (1) | CORE INFLATION (2) |
| SEP ‘25 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| OCT ‘25 | X (3) | X (3) |
| NOV ‘25 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| DEC ‘25 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| JAN ‘26 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| FEB ‘26 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| MAR ‘26 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
Footnotes:
(1) Includes all items
(2) Excludes food and energy
(3) October data not available because of government shutdown
Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Looking at these numbers reveals what we already knew intuitively, namely that the inflation rate surge was the direct result of higher energy costs created by the war in Iran.
The events that affect inflation levels usually take a few weeks to manifest themselves, which means that we have not seen the end of rising costs associated with the Iran war. That is why many observers are predicting further upward inflationary pressure, which will result in higher inflation numbers when the April numbers are released on May 12.
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