Estimates Of Global Warming Reduction By Reducing CO2 Emissions

The current political climate is all about a “climate emergency” or “climate crisis” that is claimed to be in our future if we don’t drastically cut carbon dioxide emissions. To me, this claim is promoted either by people ignorant of how climate works or who are using it as an excuse to drastically change global economies away from capitalism and establish socialism.

In a previous post (Who is afraid of two degrees of warming?) I show that nothing bad happens even if we surpass the claimed climate tipping point. In this article I review several estimates of global temperature that will occur with various reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Bottom line: even if we stopped all carbon dioxide emissions it would not make any real difference.

Here are some estimates:

Bjorn Lomborg and John Christy Shred Climate Alarmism

by Marlo Lewis, Jr., Competitive Enterprise Institute (link)

The latest talking point of progressive politicians, pundits, and activists is that America cannot afford not to spend trillions of dollars to “solve the climate crisis” because global warming is an existential threat. Even a complete elimination of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would avert only 0.083°C to 0.173°C. A doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide will produce global warming of just over one degree Celsius.

Analysis of US and State-by-State Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Potential “Savings” in Future Global Temperature and Global Sea Level Rise by Paul Knappenberger, Science and Public Policy Institute (link)

This paper shows that if Arizona stops all carbon dioxide emissions it could possibly prevent a rise in temperature of 0.0029°C by 2100. If the entire U.S. stopped all carbon dioxide emissions it could prevent a temperature rise of 0.172°C by 2100.

The impact of a complete and immediate cessation of all CO2 emissions from the U.S. on projections of future sea level rise would be similarly small—a reduction of the projected sea level rise of only 0.6cm by 2050 and 1.8cm (less than one inch) by the year 2100.

Impact of Current Climate Proposals (Paris agreement)

Bjorn Lomborg, Copenhagen Consensus Center (link)

This article investigates the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030, using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even optimistically assuming that promised emission cuts are maintained throughout the century, the impacts are generally small. The impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) is a reduction in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100. The full US promise for the COP21 climate conference in Paris, its so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will reduce temperature rise by 0.031°C. The EU 20-20 policy has an impact of 0.026°C, the EU INDC 0.053°C, and China INDC 0.048°C. All climate policies by the US, China, the EU and the rest of the world, implemented from the early 2000s to 2030 and sustained through the century will likely reduce global temperature rise about 0.17°C in 2100. These impact estimates are robust to different calibrations of climate sensitivity, carbon cycling and different climate scenarios. Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades.

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Reduce U.S. Carbon Emissions To Zero, And The Temperature Decrease By 2100 Will Be Undetectable by Patrick Michaels (link): Reduce U.S. Carbon Emissions To Zero, And The Temperature Decrease By 2100 Will Be Undetectable (0.052°C by 2050 and 0.137°C by 2100).

If these estimates are close to reality, then a total cessation of carbon dioxide emissions will hardly effect global temperature, but such reductions will devastate our economies.

“The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.” – H. L. Mencken

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”- H.L. Mencken

Related articles:

A Review of the state of Climate Science

Carbon dioxide is necessary for life on Earth

Top UN official admits climate change is about transforming world economy

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