A fresh OH Predictive poll of Arizona Republicans finds that the race for the GOP nomination for President is a two-horse race with former President Donald Trump leading the pack with 42% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 26%. The next closest candidate was Trump’s former Vice-President Mike Pence, who registered at just 8% in the poll.
“Of course Donald Trump is winning.” said one Southern Arizona activist who asked to not be identified. “He was the greatest President in my lifetime, maybe in our country’s history, and this entire primary is a waste of time. We just need to nominate him again and skip these primaries.”
National polling confirms the two-man race, but results have varied, with a number of recent polls showing DeSantis with a lead over Trump, but those results are national and it will ultimately be state-by-state results that determine the winner. A poll from Monmouth showed DeSantis and Trump even at 33%, and a poll from WPA Intel showed DeSantis ahead by 9 points, 40 to 31%. A separate poll from Quinnipiac showed Trump in front 43 – 41% and an Emerson poll suggested Trump had a large lead, 55-30%.
Given Trump’s near universal name awareness among voters, there is worry among some Trump supporters that his numbers are most often below 50%, but since there are likely to be quite a few candidates on the ballot, Trump can win states with a simple plurality rather than a majority.
For their part, DeSantis supporters are encouraged by early polling results.
“To be in such a strong position without so much as a day of campaigning for President is remarkable and very encouraging.” said Constantin Querard, who is hoping DeSantis runs for President and is organizing DeSantis supporters across Arizona. “The Republican Party wants a candidate who can champion our values, who has a track record of success, and who can deliver victory in 2024, not just when it comes to the White House, but a Republican Senate majority, and an increased House majority as well. I firmly believe that candidate is Ron DeSantis.”