On October 17, the United States Congress Joint Economic Committee issued its Monthly Fiscal Update for September.
As is often the case with congressional reports, this one is lengthy and complicated. However, the important information contained in this report may be summarized in this table:
| PERIOD | NET OUTLAYS | NET RECEIPTS | SURPLUS or DEFICIT |
| September, 2025 | $345.71 Billion | $543.66 Billion | $197.95 Billion Surplus |
| Fiscal Year, 2025 | $7,010.32 Billion | $5,234.61 Billion | $1,775.71 Billion Deficit |
While we continue to see large budget deficits, the FY2025 number of 1.775 trillion dollars is noticeable lower, by 2.82%, than the FY2024 number of 1.828 trillion dollars.
Considered alone, a 2.82% budget deficit reduction from the previous year is modest at best. But if it is the beginning of a trend that continues in FY2026 and beyond, we have something to celebrate.
Historically, budget deficit reductions have been extremely scarce, regardless of who the president was, as illustrated by this table:
| FISCAL YEARS | PRESIDENT | DEFICIT | % INCREASE |
| 2018-2021 | Trump | $6.6 T | 33% |
| 2010-2017 | Obama | $6.8 T | 58% |
| 2002-2009 | Bush, G. W. | $3.3 T | 57% |
| 1994-2001 | Clinton | $68 B Surplus | 1% Decrease |
| 1990-1993 | Bush, G. H. W | $1.0 T | 36% |
Source: The Balance Money Did not include the data for Biden.
Over the last 25 years, every president has presided over significant increases in budget deficits.
One significant exception was president Clinton, who left the White house with a net, 8-year surplus of 68 billion dollars. This represented only a 1% reduction compared to the previous administration, but it was a reduction that has not been duplicated since. If subsequent administrations had followed the same trend, our national debt would be substantially different today.
The way Bill Clinton accomplished his deficit reduction was very simple. He promoted reducing spending to match revenues. Those of us who were around back then, probably remember his campaign promise to, “End welfare as we have come to know it.”
It took some time, but in 1996, congress finally granted his wish by passing the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. This, along with other measures, enabled his administration to leave us with a budget surplus.
President Trump also has been advocating spending cuts and revenue enhancements, which are most likely the reason for the September budget surplus. If this trend continues, we may very well achieve further budget surpluses, and possibly reductions in our national debt. If it happens, it will end a 24-year tradition of budget deficits and national debt growth.
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