Primary Challenges May Harm Republican State Legislators

In a democratic federal republic like ours, we place a very high value on governance by the people. We apply that principle not only to choosing in a general election which candidates will govern us, but also to choosing who the candidates will be in a primary election.

However, not everyone supports the notion that candidates should be chosen via a primary election, as illustrated by this comment by a politically savvy person who has voted in every election since 1980.

“A primary election simply tests the popularity of a subset of candidates among a subset of people and therefore can’t reflect the wider voting public nor predict the likelihood of success in a general election.  That’s the advantage of a ‘smoke-filled room’ where they can look at the primary results, toss them out, and pick a candidate who will win.”

That statement may not be as outrageous as it may seem at first. All too often, primary elections are in fact popularity contests in which the vote goes to the candidate we like the most or agrees with us the most, with little or no regard to whether our favorite candidate can win in the general election.

While we are not suggesting bringing back smoke-filled rooms, it is the goal of this piece to encourage primary voters to use their head when choosing candidates for the state legislature, and to suggest tools to use to accomplish it.

The best way to facilitate Republican victories in general elections is to vote in primary elections according to two rules established by prominent conservative individuals and paraphrased here as a reminder.

BUCKLEY RULE, by William F. Buckley, Jr.: In a primary election, vote for the most conservative candidate that can win in the general election.

REAGAN 80/20 RULE, by President Ronald Reagan: Someone who agrees with you 80% of the time is your friend, not your 20% traitor.

While it is a good idea to apply these rules in all primary elections, it is critical to do so in situations where a win by a newcomer will result in the loss of an experienced legislator. The worst-case scenario would be a loss of the seat to the Democrat candidate. The best-case scenario would be to end up with a freshman legislator who cannot be as efficient because this job, like any other, requires training and experience.

This election cycle has the usual number of newcomers vying for positions in the legislature, but only six in which a primary win by the newcomer will result in losing the experienced legislator. Primary election voters in any of the six districts involved should be extremely cautious and make sure they have good, solid information before deciding whether replacing the incumbent member is worth the risk. Choosing facts over feelings is always a good idea, but imperative in connection with primary elections involving these:

Three Republican Senate members, in districts 2, 3, and 27

Three Republican House members, in districts 1, 4, and 28

Here is a list of some of the advantages that experienced legislators would have and newcomers would not.

1. Name Recognition. With few exceptions, legislators draw attention by just doing their job.
2. Proven Record. Voters do not have to guess or accept someone else’s word for it. All they have to do is look at the public record.
3. Fund Raising. It is no secret that well-known legislators with records of representing their constituents well are likely to find fund raising easier.
4. Committee Assignments. It is rare for freshman legislators to be assigned to choice committees. It is even rarer for them to be committee chairmen.
5. Proven Electability. While newcomers may have won elections elsewhere, they have not done so for the office they are seeking now.

Readers of the foregoing material who want to exercise the two cardinal rules of voting in primary elections (Buckley’s and Reagan’s) may be wondering how to best do it. To them we suggest the following course of action:

1. Make a list of the issues most important to you. You will be determining to what extent the incumbent legislator supports your issues.
2. To check out a Senate member, go to https://www.azleg.gov/MemberRoster/?body=S                                                 To check out a House member, go to https://www.azleg.gov/MemberRoster/?body=H
3. Click on the name of the legislator for a list of sponsored bills.
4. If that list of sponsored bills is mostly to your liking (Reagan’s Rule), your job is done. That member deserves to be rewarded with retention, not punished with expulsion. You may not want to look any further and skip the rest of the steps. Otherwise continue on, to check out votes on individual bills. This part of the process will provide a better picture of member performance, but be aware that it will be tedious and slow.
5. Go to the legislature’s home page at https://www.azleg.gov/
6. Enter the bill number you are interested in and press “Enter”
7. The page that appears is the Overview page that contains the bill’s history
8. To see how all members voted in the full chamber, scroll down to “Show Senate Third”, “Show Senate Final”, Show House Third”, or “Show House Final”, whichever is applicable.
9. The page that appears contains an alphabetical list of all the voting members. Scroll down to the member you are interested in to see how he/she voted.

• Repeat steps 5-9 for as many bills as you wish.

There are organizations that make it easier to keep voters informed about what is going on at the legislature, including how members voted on certain bills, by providing regular reports during the legislative session. To request more information about this, contact the author of this article at [email protected]